Ole Miss and LSU face off in a pivotal SEC matchup on Saturday night. Here is how to bet the game on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU o/u 63.5
Both of these teams have already suffered one loss this season and two losses will put them on the bubble to make the College Football Playoff, especially since both teams have more tough games ahead the rest of the season. So, both of these teams are desperate for a win in this spot and should put forward an all-out attack game plan.
Ole Miss and LSU both have offenses that are capable of explosive passing plays. LSU ranks 13th in the nation in EPA/pass and Ole Miss ranks 15th. However, Ole Miss has a much better balance to its offense. The Rebels rank 29th in EPA/rush to go along with that passing attack while LSU ranks 76th in EPA/rush. This game will likely have some long pass plays from both offenses, but if Ole Miss can control the clock and tempo with its running game, that gives it a significant edge.
In recent years, these teams have gotten into shootouts, including last year’s game, which Ole Miss won 55-49. However, both teams made significant efforts to improve their defenses this offseason. So far, Ole Miss seems to have the more improved defensive unit by a significant margin. It is 15th in the nation in EPA/pass on defense while LSU is 104th. With two dangerous passing attacks on offense, Ole Miss seems to have a much better chance of slowing down the opposition on defense. The Rebels haven’t had to play an elite passing unit yet but in their two SEC games this season, they have given up a combined 23 points.
The passing offenses on these two teams are pretty comparable but Ole Miss has edges basically everywhere else. It has the better defense, the better running game and the better coaches. The only other real edge for LSU is its home-field advantage, but Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has started a game in Death Valley before and at many hostile road environments at this point in his career. Dart should be prepared for the raucous crowd and still be able to perform. Ole Miss should use the ground game to control the time of possession and take the crowd out of the game. I am backing Ole Miss to win this game and cover the short spread.
Best Bet: Ole Miss -3.5
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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