Well, this is a sacred day baseball fans. For what will be the final time in 2024, we get a full day of action on the diamond. Things start at 3:08 p.m. ET in Detroit for Game 3 of that ALDS series and they’ll wrap up, likely past midnight on the east coast, in San Diego with Game 4 of the NLDS series. It’s going to be a beautiful stretch.
Here are some bets to consider before everything gets underway.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Team Total: Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-110)
I’m not above riding with the hot hand and, at this moment, the Mets’ bats are scorching. After putting up a four-spot in the ninth inning of Game 3 of its Wild Card series against the Brewers, New York has simply not slowed down. In fact, the Mets have scored at least six runs in all three contests they’ve played in the NLDS. I think that trend will continue this evening in a matchup with Ranger Suarez.
Suarez was one of the best pitchers in baseball prior to the All-Star break, but things have fallen apart in the season’s second-half. In the 10 starts Suarez has made since the beginning of July, the veteran southpaw has posted an ugly 6.04 ERA with a 9.1% walk rate. Yes, a .356 BABIP is due to regress and is the main culprit of Suarez’s struggles, yet these are the issues exacerbated by being a contact-oriented pitcher. Suarez isn’t Paul Skenes. Opponents are going to keep putting balls in play.
The Mets have also crushed left-handed pitching this season. To wit, the team’s 118 wRC+ within the split is tied for the fourth-best mark in all of baseball. In terms of individual performances, New York employs three bats who ranked inside the top 25 among qualified hitters in expected wOBA versus LHPs: J.D. Martinez (.430), Francisco Lindor (.394) and Starling Marte (.382). Needless to say, this is a dangerous lineup to navigate if you’re a lefty.
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New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Clarke Schmidt Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Volume concerns are at the heart of each and every pitching prop in the playoffs. This isn’t the regular season, where you might need a pitcher to eat six innings on a random Wednesday night, this is October. A starter could be pulled at any time for any reason. Still, having said all that, and factoring in that tonight will mark his first-career postseason start, this strikeout prop seems a little low for Schmidt.
Schmidt isn’t a generational strikeout machine, yet the 28-year-old is certainly above-average in the swing-and-miss department. Schmidt’s 26.3% strikeout rate during the regular season ranked in the 74th percentile of MLB. His 29.4% whiff rate sat in the 79th percentile. Heck, if we want to just get right to the point, Schmidt struck out at least four opponents in 15 of his 16 starts in 2024. He struck out at least five hitters in 14 of those games. It feels like Schmidt is a lock to hit this over so long as he pitches into the fifth inning. I don’t believe that’s asking too much, considering the RHP is in a matchup with a Royals team that finished dead-last in wRC+ in the month of September (61).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
