Well, it seems like the Miracle Mets are still riding high. Following a commanding 7-2 victory in Game 3 on Tuesday, New York is now one win away from a trip to the NLCS. They’ve beaten Zack Wheeler. They beaten Aaron Nola. Can they beat Ranger Suarez on Wednesday?
Here’s my top bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s tilt.
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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Team Total: Mets Over 3.5 Runs (-110)
I’m not above riding with the hot hand and, at this moment, the Mets’ bats are scorching. After putting up a four-spot in the ninth inning of Game 3 of its Wild Card series against the Brewers, New York has simply not slowed down. In fact, the Mets have scored at least six runs in all three contests they’ve played in the NLDS. I think that trend will continue this evening in a matchup with Ranger Suarez.
Suarez was one of the best pitchers in baseball prior to the All-Star break, but things have fallen apart in the season’s second-half. In the 10 starts Suarez has made since the beginning of July, the veteran southpaw has posted an ugly 6.04 ERA with a 9.1% walk rate. Yes, a .356 BABIP is due to regress and is the main culprit of Suarez’s struggles, yet these are the issues exacerbated by being a contact-oriented pitcher. Suarez isn’t Paul Skenes. Opponents are going to keep putting balls in play.
The Mets have also crushed left-handed pitching this season. To wit, the team’s 118 wRC+ within the split is tied for the fourth-best mark in all of baseball. In terms of individual performances, New York employs three bats who ranked inside the top 25 among qualified hitters in expected wOBA versus LHPs: J.D. Martinez (.430), Francisco Lindor (.394) and Starling Marte (.382). Needless to say, this is a dangerous lineup to navigate if you’re a lefty.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
