The Royals did what they needed to do in New York, taking Game 2 despite an underwhelming Cole Ragans performance. Now we’re on even ground as this ALDS series heads to Kansas City.
Here’s my top prop on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s tilt.
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New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
Clarke Schmidt Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Volume concerns are at the heart of each and every pitching prop in the playoffs. This isn’t the regular season, where you might need a pitcher to eat six innings on a random Wednesday night, this is October. A starter could be pulled at any time for any reason. Still, having said all that, and factoring in that tonight will mark his first-career postseason start, this strikeout prop seems a little low for Schmidt.
Schmidt isn’t a generational strikeout machine, yet the 28-year-old is certainly above-average in the swing-and-miss department. Schmidt’s 26.3% strikeout rate during the regular season ranked in the 74th percentile of MLB. His 29.4% whiff rate sat in the 79th percentile. Heck, if we want to just get right to the point, Schmidt struck out at least four opponents in 15 of his 16 starts in 2024. He struck out at least five hitters in 14 of those games. It feels like Schmidt is a lock to hit this over so long as he pitches into the fifth inning. I don’t believe that’s asking too much, considering the RHP is in a matchup with a Royals team that finished dead-last in wRC+ in the month of September (61).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
