Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell battled in the offseason for the number one job with Minshew eventually getting the nod, but it could have easily been O’Connell, as he performed and carried himself well.
In five starts to open the season, Minshew wasn’t bad, completing 70.7% of his passes for 1,014 yards, four touchdowns and leading the Raiders to two wins. But, but, but, he threw five interceptions and single-handedly gave away games. As a result, the move to O’Connell was decided and he will start Week 6 and likely for the foreseeable future.
This move brings uncertainty for TE Brock Bowers, who is currently the TE1 in PPR leagues. Minshew peppered him with 36 targets, tied for the most among all pass catchers for the Raiders.
My initial thought is that not much will change, as O’Connell flooded his number-one option last season with double-digit targets seven times, with a whopping 21 targets in one contest. That player was Davante Adams, though, a wide receiver.
In the 11 games he played last season, O’Connell targeted the tight end position a total of 49 times. Out of 343 passes, which is a paltry 14%. But Bowers is not a regular tight end. He is essentially the number one receiver now with Adams on the brink of getting traded.
Last season, O’Connell threw 172 of 343 passes in the 0-to-9-yard area, posting a Total EPA of 32.3 and completing 69.8%. 20 of the 36 targets Bowers has garnered this season have been in that area. In addition, O’Connell was horrid when under pressure, posting a Total EPA of -69 vs 36.3 when not pressured. Having a legitimate receiving threat from the tight end position could mitigate the effects of pressure somewhat as many of the routes would be quick hitters.
We shall see how it plays out, but I’m thinking that Bowers may actually thrive with O’Connell under center because Minshew threw 41% of his passes in the 0-9-yard zone while O’Connell was a blip over 50% last season.
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