So! I got the Colts defense all the way wrong last week for our fantasy football lineups, mine included. My apologies. You’d have been better off streaming the Bears.
My explanation is only this: Trevor Lawrence faced pressure from the Colts pass rush on only 5.3% of his dropbacks. That is some out-of-their-shoes play from this Jacksonville offensive line. To put it into perspective, Colts D/ST’s pressure rate on QB dropbacks in preceding weeks:
- Week 4 against Steelers: 35.2%
- Week 3 against Bears: 25.0%
- Week 2 against Packers: 22.2%
- Week 1 against Texans: 36.8%
Again: unreal play from the Jacksonville offensive line. Kudos to Doug Pederson and Press Taylor for scheming a gameplan that utterly net-zeroed the Colts’s front seven, injured though they may be. So much of why we love the Colts defense is because of the disruption that pass rush creates. It was a nonfactor on Sunday, and most of us who started them got a -2.0 FPT slapped to our total.
I digress. Onward and upward. Let’s get to it for Week 6.
Start ‘Em
Chicago Bears D/ST (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars; 51.9% rostered)
I was wrong about this defense last week, too. They’re playing with some serious momentum behind an increasingly-poised signal-caller in Caleb Williams. Week 5 against the Panthers felt a bit for the Bears like the lightbulb moment. Everything was firing on all cylinders.
What better way to absolutely obliterate that kind of inertia by demanding this defensive personnel get their passports out and fly across the pond? I don’t think so, this time.
As you saw above, Jacksonville’s scheme worked out far too well (Trevor Lawrence with a clean pocket on 94.6% of dropbacks is just not going to happen consistently) for us to be nervous it’s the new norm. You might say that the Colts weren’t exactly ready for Tank Bigsby’s breakout game. The Bears are likely more on watch for that.
The Bears defense ranks third in the NFL in total pass EPA allowed (-62.1). Their pass rush is on the rise. Brisker is legit, and Montez Sweat is just getting started.
Trevor Lawrence might get bangers-and-mashed on Sunday morning.
Los Angeles Chargers D/ST (vs. Denver Broncos; 26.0% rostered)
This is sort of a spicy play. Statistically, the Chargers defense has been fine; as a Chargers fan, I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop.
From the jump, I want you to know: I’m only advocating you start this defense on feel. Analysis will be soft. If you want a follow-the-data approach, go Bears. But does anyone else feel like Bo Nix might be feeling himself just a bit too much after last week’s blowout against the Raiders?
Jesse Minter and Jim Harbaugh are going to have this defense foaming at the mouth for a divisional win, especially on the road. Derwin James will be back from his suspension, which makes me less worried about Courtland Sutton’s perennial ability to stretch the field and make wild catches.
This is a quarterback Harbaugh and Minter are familiar with, seeing as all three just graduated from NCAA to the NFL. Something tells me the Chargers defense might absolutely bamboozle Bo Nix, and remind us all that quarterback development is violently nonlinear.
Sit ‘Em
Denver Broncos D/ST (vs. Los Angeles Chargers; 76.4% rostered)
Other than Week 1 against the Seahawks when they allowed 26 points, the Broncos haven’t allowed more than 18 in a game since. They have 19 sacks, five interceptions, and two safeties against offenses that were desperately trying to create explosive plays against them.
Enter a much more smash-mouth, conservative offensive approach in Jim Harbaugh’s 2024 Los Angeles Chargers. This is not a team that’s going to put its quarterback in a position to turn over the ball this week.
19 sacks? That’s impressive. But not to an offensive line tied for seventh in the league in sacks allowed (9). It’s going to be an absolute mud-fight in the trenches, but that’s what this Chargers team is all about. They’re fresh off a bye. Healthier for a Sunday contest than they’ve been since Week 1.
As for the five interceptions? Kudos, also, to the Broncos D/ST for that shiny number. But Herbert’s only thrown a single interception so far this year. That’s second-best in the league.
The Broncos D/ST is so high-scoring because it pounces on opportunities. Harbaugh’s not going to give them any. They may hang around the ten-point mark this week, but don’t mistake them for being as smash a start as folks think.
San Francisco 49ers D/ST (at Seattle Seahawks; 92.7% rostered)
If they didn’t score a touchdown last week, the Niners D/ST would have registered a paltry 5.0 FPTs for all our lineups.
Really, their only impressive week came at home against an absolutely yucksville New England Patriots offense. Aside from that 27.0 FPT effort (also buoyed by a touchdown!) and the 11.0 one in Week 5, they’ve posted weeks of 8.0, 5.0, and 7.0 FPTs. Middling at best.
Thursday Night games are weird. The Seattle offense, too, is weirdly consistent: they haven’t scored fewer than 20 points in a game thus far.
I have a feeling this game on Thursday leans toward the home team, and the Niners defense is going to feel every bit of this offense that ranks third in the NFL in success percentage per dropback (52.2%).
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