There’s a sentiment in fantasy sports that almost feels ageist; it happens when we evaluate players. One of the first things that comes to mind is a player’s age. As Bodhi Sanders said, “Beware of an old man in a profession where men usually die young.” Sports is typically a young man’s game, but we must reconcile a player’s mileage with their experience. The average NBA career is only around 4.8 years; those who’ve stuck around longer did so for a reason.
Let’s take a look at some older vets who come with a little age discount:
Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns (ADP: 16.1)
Durant is 36 years old and coming off a 75-game season averaging 27.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 5 APG. He’s aging like fine wine and came back from his Achilles injury in stunning fashion; Durant averaged 27 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.1 APG on 49/88/38 shooting splits before his injury and 28.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG, and 5.5 APG on 53/89/41 shooting splits after his injury. Remarkably, he actually looks like an improved player since returning from his Achilles injury and played the most games since his 2018-2019 season.
Durant’s price tag is a modest (for him) second-round pick this season and he should finish as a first-round player on a per-game basis once again. The Suns are a talented but shallow team. They will rely on Durant to carry the majority of their offensive load alongside Devin Booker. Durant is capable of sleepwalking his way to 27 PPG on excellent percentages. He’s changed his game a bit to suit his age; he’s a bit slower and doesn’t rely on attacking the rim nearly as much as he did in his youth. For comparison, he attempted 193 shots around the rim last season, but 368 shots at the rim during his 2015-16 season. To make up for this disparity, Durant is taking many more mid-range shots in isolation. He has absolutely no problem getting into his spots and shooting over defenders. He shot 56.7% FG from 2-point territory last season; as one of the game’s premier isolation players, he is simply elite.
Fred VanVleet, Houston Rockets (ADP: 38.6)
They don’t call him “Steady Freddy” for nothin’; VanVleet is, for lack of a better term, a winner. He’s embraced his veteran role in Houston quickly. He takes fewer shots than he did during his prime years in Toronto and seems happy to facilitate the offense to help develop the Rockets’ war chest of young, promising players. It’s not quite fair to call him old at age 29, either. So why’s his ADP so low? He was a second or third-round pick last season and finished rank 17 in 9-category leagues. He’s far from washed and played 73 games.
VanVleet’s story is one borne from grit, determination, and drive. He went undrafted after his college career and ground his way through the G-League to make the Raptors’ roster in 2016. He’s the fourth undrafted player to make an All-Star team, and the first to receive a max deal. Houston will need this type of leadership and discipline if they want to make any sort of postseason splash, and I’m bullish on Vanvleet this season at this price. Ime Udoka loves defensive-minded, disciplined players and we should expect to see a lot of VanVleet on the court this year.
Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs (ADP: 102.4)
We’ve all seen what Chris Paul did for that young OKC squad back when they were running the three-headed monster at guard with Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dennis Schroder. He’s a proven mentor for younger players with his wisdom and many years of NBA experience. The Spurs needed a playmaker last season, as evidenced by Popovich’s experiment with running Jeremy Sochan at point guard at different points during the season. They have Tre Jones on hand, a serviceable playmaker, but nobody on Paul’s level. The Spurs are hoping that trading for Paul will help speed Victor Wembanyama’s development, and rightfully so.
CP3 is one of the best passers in the league even in his old age. He’s not going to return massive value, but he should be a nice source of clean assists at his draft position with minimal turnovers. He won’t be asked to score 15-20 a night; I’m not even sure if he’s capable of that. But he can throw lobs, accurately place entry passes into the post, and operate the pick and roll with Wembanyama with poise and perfect decision-making. I’m expecting Paul to have a good, efficient year with low minutes on this Spurs roster as their starting point guard. His fit with Wembanyama is unknown, but for this price point, I’m willing to take a swing to see what this duo can do.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
