This is easily one of the top-five matchups of the regular season in college football, and if it’s anything close to what we recently saw from Georgia and Alabama we are in for quite the ride. This game was a pick’em over the summer, moving to Ohio State -1 before the season began. However, now that it’s game week, we’ve seen some really interesting movement. The Ducks opened as a pretty significant home dog, getting 4.5 points in Eugene, which I jumped on as a play on Sunday.
Since the number reopened, we’ve seen the line plummet to Oregon +3, despite getting just 25% of the money according to our betting splits on DK Network, as of Wednesday afternoon. I’m comfortable playing this one down to +3, and if the number does ever jump below a field goal, I think a smaller player on the moneyline is warranted. Here’s why I like the Ducks on Saturday night.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks
Oregon +4.5 (-110) 1-unit
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
I had interest in Oregon in this game over the summer when it was being priced as a coin flip, so I’m thrilled to be catching points with the Ducks as a home dog in this one. Has Ohio State looked better than Oregon so far this season? Yes, probably. But I think Oregon has improved as the season has gone on, and put a lot of those early season struggles in the past.
Oregon beat Idaho by 10 points in the opener, and that sparked some concern. Roll that into the Ducks barely surviving Boise State by a score of 37-34 in Week 2, and the concern only grew. What we now know is that Boise is ranked No. 17 overall, and the frontrunner for a Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. Since then, Oregon steamrolled Oregon State on the road, and had convincing victories over UCLA and Michigan State.
Sparty is the common opponent of these two teams, and Ohio State won by a larger margin on the road than the Ducks were able to at home. Another indicator that the Buckeyes have been slightly more impressive. But I don’t think it can be overstated just how tough of a road test this is going to be for Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played four home games and traveled to Michigan State, but Saturday night in Eugene is going to be a completely different animal.
While the Buckeyes are off to a 1-0 ATS start on the road this season, this was not a good team against the number away from home last season. In 2023, Ohio State went just 1-4-1 ATS on the road, and the push was a game that closed -3 at Notre Dame and finished 17-14. Most Notre Dame backers got the +3.5 that was available throughout the week, so saying Ohio State went just 1-5 ATS on the road last season wouldn’t be an exaggeration.
This year’s squad might be a better Buckeyes roster, but we still haven’t seen them play a road game this difficult. Oregon hasn’t been quite as sharp as I’d hoped heading into this game, but it’s still a very dangerous offense. Dan Lanning was 12-1 SU/10-3 ATS at home as the Head Coach of Oregon prior to this season, closing as a home dog just once. That was back in 2022, when the Ducks were two-point dogs to Utah, and won outright by three points. The lone outright loss was as a favorite, but came by just three points to Washington in 2022 — a team we know the Ducks really struggled with, as Michael Penix Jr. and Kalen DeBoer went on to beat Oregon twice in 2023.
Oregon is 3-0 SU at home this season, but 0-3 ATS. That said, the Ducks have played just one of their last three at home, and Michigan State decided to kick a last second field goal just to sneak in the backdoor cover. I think that 0-3 ATS number might be getting us a better number on the Ducks here, while history tells us in the Dan Lanning era that this is a dangerous home team.
I respect the Buckeyes quite a bit, but think the Ducks have a great chance outright on Saturday night. I’ll grab the points with the live home dog.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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