The 3-2 Bucs will be traveling early this week due to the storms in Florida, spending the week in New Orleans before facing the 2-3 Saints. After a 2-0 start that saw the Saints taking a lot of money in futures markets, New Orleans has really regressed, losers of three straight. Meanwhile, Tampa was a first down away from improving to 4-1 in Atlanta, but wound up losing in overtime on Thursday night in Week 5. Let’s breakdown this NFC South divisional matchup, which sets up as a very strong spot for the Bucs.
UPDATE: With Derek Carr officially ruled out the line has moved even more. I am confident playing Tampa Bay up to -4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (+100) at New Orleans Saints
1-unit
I put this one out on Twitter on Sunday night, already looking ahead to this spot. We got the movement we wanted, but I saw some things in the game on Monday night that has me going back to Tampa as the favorite on the moneyline following a 4.5-point move.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (-130) at New Orleans Saints
1.5-units
Obviously, the Saints did not look good on Monday night in Kansas City, finishing with just 13 points. The once explosive offense that averaged 45.5 points per game through two games, appears mostly to be a mirage. Since then, New Orleans is averaging just over 16 points per game, finishing with less than 14 points in two of three outings.
This number was going to move off that 2.5 lookahead line just based off the poor play from New Orleans, but then we go an interesting twist when Derek Carr went down late in the game and did not return. We’ll see if Carr can play through the oblique injury in Week 6, and even through Carr has not played well recently, the Saints are in really tough shape at quarterback on the depth chart — Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, both of whom essentially have zero NFL experience.
The Saints have had virtually no offense for three weeks, and when they do put up points, it generally comes in one big play. If Carr plays, I still like Tampa, but if he’s out, the Saints just have far less of a chance to convert those big plays down field — for example the deep touchdown to Rashid Shaheed on Monday.
Outside of a decent defense, just about everything is wrong with the Saints right now. They are catching the Bucs at the complete wrong time, getting a refreshed team that’s had a long time to think about a bad loss. While New Orleans is dinged up and on the short week, the Bucs just played last Thursday night. They’ve had extra time to prep and get healthy off an overtime road loss that they probably should have won in regulation.
Since the embarrassing home loss to the Broncos, Baker Mayfield has put up 30 or more points in consecutive games. Tampa scored 26 at New Orleans last season, in an impressive win, holding the Saints to just nine points. The numbers on the season overall don’t really tell the story, as New Orleans got off to a video game type of start, before massive regression hit. If we are just judging off the last three weeks, the Bucs are the much better team here, specifically on the offensive side of the ball.
Off a really poor loss, with four extra days to prep for the game and Carr being dinged up, this is one of the better spots you’ll see all season in the NFL. I’m fine backing Tampa up to -2.5 on the spread or -140 on the moneyline.
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