Week 6. We have our first casualty from internal politics as Robert Saleh got 86’d. But the Jets are not on the main slate so therefore not in the mix. I just wanted to talk about it for giggles and kicks. Maybe induce a smile and get some extra clicks, but you came here for picks, so let me get focused and serious like John Wick so that I can navigate us through the matrix and isolate the players that will provide the heroics, eschewing those that are just on the field for calisthenics. We want the players that shake the Earth like plate techtonics. We want the running backs that dart around defenders like a Bugatti racing on the highway through traffic. We don’t care about color of the fabric, only about the dances in the end zone that make us hypnotic. May the hydraulics lift you up like a phoenix, surpassing the land of logic and etching you forever in DraftKings lore, in essence becoming a relic.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has four games with an O/U of at least 45: WAS/BAL (52.5), ARI/GB (49.5), DET/DAL (52.5) and ATL/CAR (47.5). There are three games with a total of 40 or below: HOU/NE (37.5), PIT/LV (36.5) and LAC/DEN (35.5).
There is no double-digit spread favorite. PHI is the largest favorite at -8.5 over CLE. There are five games within a field goal: IND -1 over TEN, TB -2 over NO, PIT -3 over LV, LAC -3 over DEN and DET -3 over DAL. There are seven home dogs: NEP, TEN, NO, LV, DEN, DAL and CAR. Bow wow wow yippee ya yippee yo.
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Quarterback
Stud
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens ($7,300) – Daniels has simply been fantastic to start the season. He leads the league in EPA and completion percentage. While there have been plenty of passes behind and close to the line of scrimmage, Daniels has stretched defenses vertically and the 8.7 yards per attempt is second only to Brock Purdy. Defenses will continue poking and prodding to find weaknesses and regression could come when Daniels has to adjust to the adjustments, but we will deal with that when it’s shown. As of now, Daniels is a conundrum for defenses because he is slicing and dicing in the passing game, but what truly makes him dangerous is his rushing prowess. Daniels has rushed 57 times for 300 yards and four touchdowns, showcasing his 4.5-second 40 speed.
This game is tied for the highest total on the slate. The Ravens are implied for a whopping 29.5 points, the highest for any team this weekend, so the Commanders will have to be aggressive to try and keep up. The Ravens also boast one of the best run defenses, so the usage should tilt more toward Daniels, if that’s even possible.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($7,800), Kyler Murray ($6,800), Jordan Love ($6,600), Kirk Cousins ($6,200)
Value
Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,200) – After putting up 27.56 and 16.7 FPTS in his first two starts, the Red Rifle was shelved and Raggedy Andy made an appearance in Week 5. But that game was against a Bears defense that boasts one of the best secondaries in the league. Now he gets to face a Falcons pass defense that has allowed the fifth-highest success rate this season and is dead-last in quarterback pressure rate. In addition, the Falcons offense should have success against the Panthers defense, which means the Red Rifle will be locked and loaded. This game has a healthy total of 47.5.
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Running Back
Stud
Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery, Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys ($7,000/$6,500) – This game is tied for the highest total of the slate and the Lions are three-point road favorites. While the Lions can proficiently attack both through the air and on the ground, the Cowboys’ strength on defense is defending the pass. Their obvious weakness is in rush defense, as the unit is allowing the fifth-highest success rate and the most Rush EPA by a wide margin. The Lions’ rushing attack has the fourth-highest success rate and third-highest Rush EPA.
Gibbs outsnapped Montgomery 30-21 in Week 4, but in Weeks 1 and 3, the snap spread was 31-30 and 31-35. Gibbs has 13 targets compared to nine for Montgomery in the passing game and a 19-14 edge in red-zone opportunities.
I think it’s viable to play both but the cost could be restrictive. I’d go with the one who is projected to be lower-owned. If that number is even, then Gibbs gets the edge.
Other Options – Alvin Kamara ($7,700), James Conner ($6,800), Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Chuba Hubbard ($6,300)
Value
Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Commanders ($5,200) – I am not enamored with the lower-priced options at running back this week. If paying down, I’d take a chance on Hill because there’s a chance the Ravens have to play catch-up in this one. I’m not saying that chance is very high, as Baltimore is favored by 6.5 points at home, but what if Jayden Daniels continues to ball out and leads the Commanders to a two-score lead? Then it will be Hill primarily in the game. On the season, Derrick Henry has played in 180 snaps. Hill has been in on 165. He has out-targeted Henry, 20-8, in the passing game.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($5,600)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers ($6,700) – It took some time for Kirk Cousins to get back into a groove, but he’s moonwalking now. And bringing his receivers along with him. After receiving three and seven targets in the first two games, London has seen nine, 12 and 13 over the last three contests. London has put up double-digit FPTS in each of the last four games, culminating in the 36.4 explosion last week. This game has a healthy total of 47.5 and the Falcons are implied to score 26.75 points, the fourth-most. Carolina has allowed the third-highest passing success rate and I think there’s a chance Andy Dalton can make this a back-and-forth affair, which could bring another double-digit targets and a possible ceiling game for London.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,100), A.J. Brown ($7,800), Stefon Diggs ($7,400), Jayden Reed ($7,000), Chris Godwin ($6,900), Zay Flowers ($6,500), Terry McLaurin ($6,400), Tank Dell ($6,200), Diontae Johnson ($6,100)
Value
Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions ($5,000) – With Brandin Cooks on the IR, it’s a two-man Cowboys wide receiver show. CeeDee Lamb is the obvious alpha, which makes defenses place more attention on him. Lamb is still getting his, but he hasn’t been able to go bonkers yet, which is what opposing defensive coordinators are trying to limit. As a result, that has opened up opportunities for others, with Tolbert being a primary beneficiary. Last week, he garnered 10 targets and caught seven for 87 yards and a touchdown. There’s a good chance he gets double-digit targets again, as this game should be high scoring.
Other Options – Darnell Mooney ($5,300), Dontayvion Wicks ($5,200), Michael Wilson ($4,600), Ray-Ray McCloud III ($4,300)
Tight End
Stud
Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions ($5,000) – The thesis for Ferguson is the same as Tolbert above. Lamb garners the attention of opposing defenses, which opens up opportunities for others. Over the last three games, Ferguson has received 11, seven and seven targets. He’s scored double-digit FPTS in all of those games. This game environment should be littered with scoring opportunities on both sides.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,000), Trey McBride ($5,700), Tucker Kraft ($4,800), Kyle Pitts ($4,400)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints ($3,500) – Tight end has been a tough position to mine fantasy goodies this season, especially in the lower-priced area. Otton may not have tremendous upside, as he isn’t high on the target totem pole, but he is playing almost all the snaps at tight end for the Bucs and has received eight, nine and four targets over the last three games. He has also received at least one red-zone look in each of the last four contests. Someone get Lloyd Christmas on the phone!
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Eagles D/ST vs. Cleveland Browns ($3,400) – The Browns have been awful on offense this season. The unit has the fifth-lowest rushing success rate while being dead-last in passing success rate. The Total EPA is a laughable -72.4. Deshaun Watson has thrown three interceptions and been sacked a league-leading 26 times. The Eagles are coming off their bye and are getting healthy, especially on offense. DK Sportsbook has Philadelphia as the largest favorite of the weekend, which means more dropbacks for Watson, which means opportunities to rack up those fantasy goodies.
Other Options – Steelers D/ST ($3,700), Texans D/ST ($3,600), Colts D/ST ($3,100)
Value
Buccaneers D/ST at New Orleans Saints ($2,600) – The Bucs could be facing a hobbled Derek Carr or rookie Jake Haener. On the season, the unit has racked up three interceptions, three fumbles and 12 sacks.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
