The 49ers have been the class of the NFC West in recent years, finishing atop the division in the last two seasons. Entering 2024, DK Sportsbook had them as the favorite once again at -195.
But On Any Given Sunday.
After dismantling the Jets on opening night, they lost to Minnesota, which isn’t so bad seeing as the Vikings are currently undfeated. They easily dispatched of the Patriots in Week 4, but they had two bad losses sandwiched around that win.
Against the Rams and Cardinals, two teams in their division, the 49ers were leading and looked to have both games in hand, but they ended up dropping both and are now 2-3, looking up at the Seahawks.
Seattle made some huge changes in the offseason. After 14 years of being led by Pete Carroll, Mike Macdonald took over the head job and brought Ryan Grubb to orchestrate the offense. The passing game has the third-best success rate, but the Total EPA is -7.4. The run game is seventh-best in success rate and 10th in Rush EPA.
The 49ers defense has allowed the 10th-lowest success rate and seventh-best Pass EPA. What truly makes the defense tough is that the unit blitzes at the eighth-lowest rate yet they have the fifth-highest sack rate. The rush defense has been middle-of-the-pack.
The 49ers offense hasn’t been humming like last season when they were almost a lock to score at least 30 points every week. They’ve hit that mark twice in five games this season. The red zone passing offense has been fine, as Brock Purdy is 20-of-30 with five touchdowns. The red zone rush offense has been bad, though, ranking 30th in Rush EPA.
There have been injuries, as Deebo Samuel and George Kittle both missed some time. Samuel is good to go now but Kittle is back on the injury report. His presence is huge for both the pass and run games.
Brock Purdy leads the league with 8.8 yards per attempt and is third in Pass EPA. The Seahawks’ pass defense has been good, though, posting the 11th-best success rate and Pass EPA. Like the 49ers, they don’t blitz often (11th-lowest rate) but are fourth in sack rate. Granted, the only potent pass offense they have faced is the Lions. The other contests were against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, a Tua-less Dolphins team and Daniel Jones.
This will be a tough test.
Jordan Mason has filled in admirably for Christian McCaffrey, but the 49ers rush game is middle-of-the-pack. So is the Seahawks’ rush defense.
DK Sportsbook has the 49ers favored by 3.5 points on the road for Thursday with the total a healthy 48.5. San Francisco is still the favorite to win the division at +110, but it’s a far cry from that -195. Seattle is at +240. The 49ers still have the third-lowest odds to win the Super Bowl at +800.
As for Tuesday’s injury report, K Jake Moody (ankle) is out, so K Matthew Wright was just signed and will handle the kicking duties. TE George Kittle (ribs) and LB Fred Warner were limited participants. For Seattle, DT Byron Murphy II (hamstring) did not practice. S Julian Love (hamstring) was a limited participant. TE Noah Fant (toe), WR DK Metcalf (hand) and DE Leonard Williams all practiced in full. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF @ SEA)
Captain’s Picks
Geno Smith ($13,800 CP): Seattle is passing at the highest rate in the league at 67.39%. The total for this game is a healthy 48.5 points and the 49ers are favored on the road, so points are expected to be scored, which should keep the Seahawks aggressive. Smith has completed at least 70% of his passes in four of five contests, and that’s with three games with 40, 56 and 44 passing attempts. He has yet to have a multi-touchdown game through the air, though. What really piques my interest, though, is his rushing prowess. It hasn’t been Jayden Daniels-esque, but he’s rushed at least four times in four of five games, with at least 30 yards in three of those. Last week, he rumbled for 72 yards. The floor is high and there’s a ceiling here that hasn’t been tapped yet.
UTIL Plays
Brandon Aiyuk ($8,400): After failing to reach 50 yards in the first four games, Aiyuk finally arrived to the 2024 season with eight catches for 147 yards on 12 targets. That was against the Cardinals, a team that plays man at the 11th-highest rate. While the Seahawks have a much better pass defense than Arizona, they are right behind in man usage, which is what Aiyuk thrives against.
Tyler Lockett ($5,400): If I like Geno in this one, then I have to like his pass catchers. While I would’ve loved to have included Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf, I’m going to utilize the other lower-priced options. While Lockett doesn’t have the upside, he received six targets last week with eight and nine the two prior weeks. He also had two red zone looks in Week 4. This is more of a price play than anything else with what should be a decent floor.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,000): Smith-Njibga is second on the team in targets, trailing Metcalf by only three on the season. Both have received 12 and seven targets over the last two weeks. But JSN got three red zone looks last week and leads the team with four on the season.
Fades
Jordan Mason ($10,200): Mason is the highest-priced player on the slate and I’m focused on both passing games. He could get close to 20 carries, but Mason doesn’t garner many targets in the passing game, receiving a total of eight in five contests. In addition, the 49ers have struggled running the ball in the red zone while the Seahawks have posted a Rush EPA of -9.4 on the season.
THE OUTCOME
I like this to be an exciting, high-scoring affair, with both teams finding success in the passing games. The 49ers have been jumping out well in recent games but haven’t been able to maintain that momentum in the second half, costing them two big division games. I don’t forsee that happening again, as the 30-point 49ers make a reappearance. That should push the Seahawks to respond aggressively. Fly Seahawks, Fly!
Final Score: 49ers 34, Seahawks 30
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF @ SEA)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
