The 3-2 Bucs will be traveling early this week due to the storms in Florida, spending the week in New Orleans before facing the 2-3 Saints. After a 2-0 start that saw the Saints taking a lot of money in futures markets, New Orleans has really regressed, losers of three straight. Meanwhile, Tampa was a first down away from improving to 4-1 in Atlanta, but wound up losing in overtime on Thursday night in Week 5. Let’s breakdown this NFC South divisional matchup, which sets up as a very strong spot for the Bucs.
Detroit Lions -3 (-120) at Dallas Cowboys
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After a 1-2 start, the Cowboys have strung together a couple of narrow road wins to get above .500. It’s been a whirlwind for Dallas, which is now off consecutive primetime wins on the road, each that came down to the last play off the game — 20-15 against the Giants, and 20-17 over the Steelers. It hasn’t been pretty, and the Cowboys have been getting by against bad offenses that have been unable to crack 20 points. Enter the Lions, averaging 26 points per game, fresh off of 42 points against Seattle, before resting up on a bye this past week.
The Lions sit at 3-1, winning their only road game of the season, going indoors to Arizona. They should be well prepped for this one, with two full weeks to game plan, and they’ll have revenge on their minds from last season. You may recall that the Cowboys won this matchup 20-19 at home last season in a game that Detroit scored the go-ahead two-point conversion in the final seconds, only to have it called back on a questionable penalty to say the least. Dan Campbell and the Lions take things personally, and have been talking about getting their lick for two weeks leading up to this one.
The Cowboys are winless at home so far this season, with a blowout loss to New Orleans that looks worse as the season progresses. I think this game is pretty similar to when a hungry Baltimore team came into Dallas in Week 3. Detroit has more talent and more motivation in Week 6, and I expect to see that play out on the field.
Detroit ranks top-10 in the NFL in points per game allowed, whereas Dallas is 23rd, allowing over 24 per game. That’s despite those last two games, giving up low numbers to the Giants and Steelers. In home games, the Cowboys have given up 36 points per game, and will be playing a Detroit offense that’s very comfortable playing indoors.
I just don’t see the Cowboys having enough in this one, particularly battling all the injuries they’ve suffered over the past couple of weeks. The Giants and Steelers couldn’t make Dallas pay, but Detroit is a much better team that will highlight those losses a bit more. Lay the points with the Lions in a terrific situational spot here.
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