New York Jets running back Breece Hall was one of the most highly-touted draft picks in fantasy football this season, and for good reason. After averaging 20.6 DKFP through his first three contests, the hype train had fully taken flight.
However, Hall managers have experienced some turbulence over the past two weeks as the third-year RB scored just 3.8 and 6.7 DKFP in back-to-back contests. It seems everyone is asking the same question — what’s wrong with Breece Hall?
Analysis
To be clear, Hall’s recent struggles certainly aren’t an indictment of his talent level. He’s among the best halfbacks in the NFL for both real-world and fantasy purposes. We saw his big-play ability and pass-catching chops on display in his triumphant return from an ACL tear last season. Hall tallied 1,585 total yards and nine TDs en route to an overall RB2 finish, all despite playing on a poor Jets offense.
Fast-forward to this season. Hall produced at an elite level in the first three weeks because that’s who he is. This short slump over Weeks 4 and 5 isn’t reason to panic.
Tough matchups are the primary cause of Hall’s struggles. In Week 4, the Jets faced a stingy Denver Broncos defense ranked third-best in yards allowed and top-ten against the run. Hall took ten carries for just four yards and caught two balls for 14 yards, as the Jets offense came out flat throughout the game. It doesn’t help that weather conditions were horrible, either.
Week 5 wasn’t much better for Hall’s fantasy production, as he rushed nine times for 23 yards and posted a 3-14 receiving line. It makes sense considering the Jets faced a fearsome Minnesota Vikings defense ranked second in rushing yards allowed per game (67.2) and fourth in points allowed per game (15.2). Plus, the contest was played in London — weirdness often ensues when teams travel across the pond.
Simply put, the past two weeks have been horrible defensive matchups for a Jets offense still trying to find its groove with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. There’s a notable lack of high-end talent at the skill positions, so teams know the football will go to Hall or wide receiver Garrett Wilson more often than not. And of course, many fans are quick to throw blame at Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
A crowded backfield
There is one more factor to consider when analyzing Hall’s recent regression. Rookie halfback Braelon Allen is looming in the background and has siphoned some of the workload at the position following a few impressive highlights.
Against Denver, Allen carried the ball eight times as compared to Hall’s ten. When they played Minnesota, Allen took five carries while Hall logged nine on the day. The split of carries isn’t exactly what fantasy managers want to see for a supposed workhorse back in Hall.
Again though, don’t hit the panic button yet. Hall has still been on the field way more than his counterpart and played 69% and 74% of snaps in Weeks 4 and 5, respectively. Hall is also a good pass blocker and has the trust of the coaching staff, which will keep him on the field.
The Buffalo Bills, ranked 26th in rushing yards allowed, are next up on the Jets’ schedule. It should be a get-right game for Hall — don’t overthink it, start your studs.
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