There is just one Monday Night Football matchup in Week 5 after back-to-back weeks with MNF double-headers. This allows the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs to step center stage in what has the potential to be a thrilling matchup.
Kansas City enters with a 4-0 record, but each victory has finished as a one-possession game. New Orleans holds a 2-2 record, but has the best-scoring offense in the NFL thus far.
The Chiefs enter the matchup as 5.5-point favorites and -245 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. New Orleans is considered +200 underdogs on the moneyline and the over/under sits at 43 points in the matchup. Looking deeper than just the game result or scoring total, here are four player props I like for the Week 5 finale.
Alvin Kamara Over 103.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115 odds)
Alvin Kamara has established himself as the driving force of the Saints’ offense. New Orleans ranks first in the league in rush attempts with the Tennessee product carrying the bulk of these opportunities. Kamara has tallied 80 carries this year which he has converted into 362 yards and five rushing touchdowns. He also has added 17 receptions for 174 yards and a touchdown through the air. Kamara has had at least 20 touches and 110 yards from scrimmage in all four games.
While this is a strong start to the season for Kamara, this should not be viewed as a fluke. The 29-year-old has had at least 1,160 yards from scrimmage in all seven seasons of his career thus far. The Saints are heavily leaning on his abilities and his 24.3 touches per game lead all players in the NFL. His 97 total touches also rank fourth in the league with the three players ahead of him (Jordan Mason, Kyren Williams, and Derrick Henry) each having played their Week 5 matchup.
Opportunity is the number one indicator of production and Kamara has plenty of this. Expect the Saints to continue leaning on him heavily and for the five-time Pro Bowl running back to produce. He will be involved in both the passing and rushing game and the Saints will need Kamara to maintain his level of play if they are to have a chance against the Chiefs. He has not been held under 103.5 yards yet this season and don’t expect this to change on Monday Night Football.
Xavier Worthy Over 49.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-120 Odds)
The Chiefs offense got a notable shakeup due to the injury to Rashee Rice. The second-year pass catcher had established himself as the clear WR1 and led the team in targets (29), receptions (24), and receiving yards (288) through the opening four weeks before suffering a significant knee injury. This leaves some significant production that needs to be replaced and Xavier Worthy should get first dibs at this opportunity.
After being selected with the 28th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, there have been high expectations for Xavier Worthy. The Texas product has been given the ball in a variety of ways and his breakaway speed provides him with big play potential on every touch. Through the opening four weeks, he has recorded nine receptions for 154 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also has added five rush attempts for 39 yards and a touchdown.
Expect the Chiefs to lean on Worthy more in this matchup in the first game without Rashee Rice. They have already shown the willingness to use Worthy in rushing situations so opt toward the combined rushing and receiving yards instead of the 42.5 receiving yard line. The 21-year-old can break free at any given moment, and could eclipse this number in one touch. Look for Kansas City to use him in a more traditional wide receiver role than we have seen thus far. Jump on the over of the 49.5 rushing and receiving yard total and expect this prop to be set higher in the coming weeks.
There also is some value in the alternate lines if you are feeling especially bullish on Worthy’s production. The +300 odds for the rookie to produce 75+ rushing and receiving yards especially has my eye.
Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-130 odds)
Another player who will benefit from the injury to Rashee Rice is Travis Kelce. The three-time Super Bowl MVP has quieted the concerns regarding his slow start to the season and is coming off his best week in 2024. In Week 4 against the Chargers, Kelce tallied seven receptions for 89 yards.
The 35-year-old has tallied seven 1,000+ receiving yard seasons and made a Pro Bowl nine times in his career. There is no doubt about his ability or chemistry with Patrick Mahomes and Kelce looks to have shaken off his offseason cobwebs. Expect this to only be the start of his production on the season. Look for Kelce to latch on to the six receptions per game that Rice typically provides.
While he has not played against them since 2022, Kelce tallied eight receptions the last time he faced the Saints. He also eclipsed 5.5 receptions in nine of the 15 games he played last year and 12 of the 17 in 2022. Expect him to add to this total and for Kelce to serve the rest of the NFL a reminder of why he should still be mentioned among the NFL’s most elite.
Alvin Kamara to Have 30+ Rush Yards in Each Half (+250 odds)
Located in the DK Specials section of the props, it is worth taking a swing at Alvin Kamara to record 30+ rush yards in each half at +250 odds. Kamara has recorded at least 77 rushing yards in each game this season and is sure to get plenty of action in this matchup.
To take it a step further, he has had 30+ rushing yards in six of the eight halves of football he has played this year. The two exceptions to this were the second half of the opening game against the Panthers and the second half of last week’s matchup with the Falcons. Kamara was not given the opportunity in the second half of the opener as the Saints held a 47-10 lead and the star running back was given some rest. Kamara also would have reached this total in the second half of last week’s game if a lengthy run was not called back due to a penalty.
Ultimately, this is too low of a margin for a player of Kamara’s talent and guaranteed opportunity. The +250 odds are great value for this type of bet. Expect Kamara to tally at least 30 yards in each half in route to what should be a very busy night for the star running back.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
