On Sunday, we saw both NLDS series get tied up at a game apiece. Could something similar be in store this evening on the American League side of the bracket? Let’s dive into today’s action on the diamond.
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
First 5: Under 2.5 (+135)
After watching the Tigers’ first three contests of this postseason run, it’s just difficult to imagine many runs being scored in Game 2 of their ALDS series against the Guardians — especially in the early innings. Detroit was shutout in Game 1 by Tanner Bibee and a collection of Cleveland relievers, and while Matthew Boyd doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of men in the year 2024, he’s got a couple of things working in his favor on Monday. One, he was quite good during the regular season, registering a 2.72 ERA and a 3.10 xERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate across eight starts. Two, he’s left-handed. The Tigers were never a potent offense, but they were particularly underwhelming versus southpaws, with a .132 ISO and a .289 wOBA. This is what happens when your two best bats — Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter — are both lefties.
It’s not like I’m projecting the Guardians to be lighting up the scoreboard, either. Cleveland was actually quite good in matchups with left-handed pitching in 2024, yet there aren’t a lot of LHPs like Tarik Skubal. There’s a case to be made that Skubal was the most valuable pitcher in baseball this past season, as he was the ultimate blend of volume and efficiency. To wit, the 27-year-old was one of only nine pitchers to throw over 190 innings. He also led all qualified starters with a 2.70 xERA and 228 strikeouts. I assume Skubal will do his part to keep this game under the number.
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Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees
Cole Ragans Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
While we can all acknowledge that the postseason is a fully unique experience, I think it’s worth noting that Ragans exceeded this prop in 24 of his 32 starts during the regular season. He also went six scoreless innings in Game 1 of Kansas City’s Wild Card series against the Orioles and probably would have worked deeper if not for some cramping in his left calf. At the end of the day, Ragans is the second-best player on the Royals’ roster. In most circumstances, it would behoof the team to extract as much value and volume out of his left arm as physically possible. As a starter, that usually means throwing 100 pitches.
Ragans comes into Monday’s tilt on quite the hot streak. Including his performance versus Baltimore, Ragans has surrendered just three earned runs over his last five outings. That’s a 0.87 ERA in 31.0 innings of action. Funny enough, that stretch features a September 11 start in the Bronx against this same Yankees lineup. Ragans went six innings with the lone blemish being a Juan Soto home run — the only long ball the left-hander has conceded since all the way back on August 20. Spoiler alert: Cole Ragans is very good. You don’t post the fourth-lowest FIP among all qualified pitchers without being an absolute stud (2.99).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
