Jayden Daniels has been spectacular to open the season. He’s gone 101-of-131 for 1,135 yards (a ridiculous 77.1%), four touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing 57 times for 300 yards, four touchdowns and 22 first downs. His stellar play has guided the Commanders to a 4-1 record and a place at the top of the NFC East.
Per Next Gen Stats, Daniels is notching a Total EPA of 57.4. Josh Allen is second at 35.1. It’s far from historic, as Patrick Mahomes put up a 199.5 Total EPA in 2018, but it’s the best by far this season. Thirty of his completions have been behind the line of scrimmage and he’s attempted 13 passes over 20 yards with two of those touchdowns and one an interception. However, there’s been plenty of meat in the middle as well, as 32 of his passes have been in the 10-to-20 yard zone, with a touchdown and only six incompletions.
But as Matt Waldman of FootballGuys has been mentioning recently, the upward progression may not be linear and end up at the moon. Teams are going to adjust, so how will Daniels adjust to the adjustments?
Through five weeks, Daniels has put up at least 20 FPTS in four contests. Since 2011, there have been four others to have a streak of at least two 20-FPTS games to start their careers: Robert Griffin III, C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Cam Newton. RGIII had a streak of four games!
Out of that pack, Newton was the only one to finish his rookie season off strong. Burrow exceedeed 20 FPTS twice in six games before succumbing to injury. RGIII had four games over 20 FPTS in 11 games. Stroud went over 20 FPTS in five of 11 games.
Prior to the season, Daniels was +1200 to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year when the odds opened on April 19th. Since then, it’s been stair-step down, down and down. Prior to the season opener, Daniels was in the +500 area. After Week 1, it went down to +365. And it’s gone down every week to where it sits now at -230.
There is now more risk to the downside for Daniels, especially considering the price. Rookie wide receivers have been known to improve as the season progresses. Caleb Williams has struggled, but he has shown improvement and is at +300. When the OROY odds opened up back in April, Williams was the favorite at +275.
Buying high can make money in certain situations, but the risk/reward usually isn’t favorable. To make the most profit, you buy at the low and sell at the top. Daniels has had a meteoric rise, but there’s a lot of football left to be played. Defenses could adjust. He could get injured. Linemen or offensive skill players could get injured as well. So much could go wrong. If you haven’t bought by now, you’re too late.
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