This time last year, Bo Nix was the king of Eugene, Oregon. It wasn’t quite the Beatles’ coming to America in 1964 levels of stardom, but it wasn’t too far off in the college town along the Cascades. He was the poster child of the latest era of Duck football, with the Nike machine pushing his Heisman candidacy before he even took a snap during his super senior season. If he had avenged an earlier season loss to the Washington Huskies in the final Pac-12 title game (for now), there’s a chance he would’ve left New York City with the award, but he came up short again.
Social media warriors grossly overinflated his age at the time of the NFL Draft—you would’ve thought 24 was when you applied for AARP. The debate of whether or not he was a first-round pick dominated scouting content for months, culminating in Sean Payton and the Broncos taking him with the 12th overall pick.
It felt like a rich price for even his most staunch supporters. Even the media machine following the selection bordered on propaganda, with Adam Schefter suggesting Payton felt as strong on Nix as he did on Pat Mahomes back in 2017. After a jaw-dropping preseason, those comparisons somehow felt less absurd—but when the games started to count, the script flipped dramatically.
Nix started his NFL tenure as an inefficient checkdown artist who couldn’t complete a pass ten yards down the field. He was the catalyst in Denver dropping their first two contests, and it’s hard to remember a young signal caller who had less juice out of the gates.
Over the last three weeks, something has seemed to click. Nix’s completion percentage has increased, and he has accounted for five touchdowns with no interceptions. The box scores have been positive, and his club has won three straight. Is his recent play indicative of bursting through the dreaded “rookie wall”? Not exactly.
The State of Bo Nix
I want to focus on his most recent performance against Las Vegas. 206 yards and a trio of scores while leading the offense to 27 points are nothing to disregard, but this is where analyzing the tape matters.
His first throw was against a blitz out of play action, where he missed a wide-open Javonte Williams on a play that should’ve led to a first down. On third and medium, he forced a slant into a window bracketed by a pair of defenders and was lucky to see the ball fall for an incompletion.
He’s a frustrating watch because the ability is evident. On the next drive, he rolled to his right, manipulated the flat corner with his eyes, and laid a beautiful toss on Lil’Jordan Humphrey’s chest for a chunk gain. The rest of the half was uneventful, with a bulk of his yards coming on screens or dump-offs.
The next 30 minutes were, if nothing else, more encouraging. Nix was more decisive in his process, which helped him deliver more accurate strikes. His best attempt wasn’t even a completion but a 56-yard rainbow to fellow Oregon alum Troy Franklin, who couldn’t corral the perfect pass. Nix’s touchdown pass to Josh Reynolds was also a beauty, flawlessly lofting the ball to the corner of the end zone.
He’s far from a refined product. Two of the three sacks he took were avoidable because of his overconfidence in shaking defensive linemen. For the most part, he operates within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, limiting explosive opportunities. Nix had chances to push the rock but chose to be hyper-conservative.
Despite these flaws, his subtle swagger rose to the surface throughout the afternoon. Nix isn’t missing chances by much, and once he gets more accustomed to leading a pro offense, his numbers are due to jump. There will be more growing pains, and the rookie blunders aren’t over, but he’s moving in the right direction. There are reasons to be optimistic about the quarterback of the future in the Mile High City.
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