Patrick Mahomes ($7,000) and the defending champs welcome the Saints to Kansas City on Monday night. For a 5.5-point underdog like New Orleans to stay in the game, its star players will need to step up.
That starts on offense, where Derek Carr ($5,700) will look to continue his stellar 2024 campaign against a solid defense. For the veteran QB to have success, it starts with Chris Olave ($6,500). The Pro Bowl wide receiver has come on strong lately, putting up 254 receiving yards over his past three games.
Will the good times continue on MNF? Kansas City has been solid against wideouts (11th in fantasy points allowed vs. WRs). However, it’s also surrendered four touchdowns to the position, ninth-most in football. There’s some precedent for WR1s scoring on the Chiefs, as Drake London and Ladd McConkey have found the end zone vs. KC.
According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzes at the eighth-highest rate in football. On the year, Carr has the third-most passing yards (344) and ninth-most yards per attempt (8.4) against the blitz. Unless the Chiefs make a drastic change to their defensive strategy, the Saints passing offense should make some plays on Monday night.
New Orleans hasn’t been in that many passing situations this year, as blowout wins in Weeks 1 and 2 led to run-heavy game scripts. That’s unlikely to be the case on the road against an undefeated juggernaut. While he trails Rashid Shaheed ($5,600) this season, Olave has led the Saints in red-zone targets over the past two seasons.
It’s hard to get a read on this primetime, interconference clash. With an over/under at 43 points, there’s a number of different directions this game can go. Still, I feel pretty confident that, win or lose, the Saints and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak will dial up a pass-heavy game plan. As New Orleans’ top target, bet on Chris Olave to score an anytime touchdown at +185.
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