The Phillies and Mets are facing off in the playoffs for the first time in history in this year’s NLDS. The pair of NL East rivals are facing off in what will likely be the most hostile matchup of the playoffs.
This is especially the case after the Mets marched into Philadelphia and produced a victory in game one with their late-game magic. They continue to find ways to generate offense in the late innings and look like a dangerous playoff team. After seven scoreless innings of pitching from Zack Wheeler, the Phillies’ bullpen could not finish the job as the Mets exploded for five runs in the eighth inning. This also marked the first Game 1 of a playoff series the Phillies have lost with Rob Thomson as their manager.
Game 2 will also take place in Philadelphia, and the pressure on the home team becomes even greater. In the best-of-five series, if the Phillies cannot even the series before heading to New York, they will be in trouble.
Cristopher Sanchez will be taking the mound for the Phillies while Luis Severino is set to pitch for the Mets. Philadelphia is considered -148 favorites on the moneyline and holds +140 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under sits at 8.5 runs and New York holds +124 odds to pull off the victory in Game 2.
With the stage fully set, here is a look at my three best bets for Game 2 of this rivalry series.
Bryce Harper Over 0.5 Walks (+100 Odds)
Bryce Harper is the face of the Phillies and has had some of his best moments when the lights are at their brightest. The two-time MVP does not shy away from the spotlight, and the Mets will continue to avoid giving him the chance to do just that.
The Mets made a conscious effort to pitch around the superstar, walking him twice in the opening game of the series. Nick Castellanos will be batting behind Harper and went 0-4 yesterday with a pair of strikeouts. Until Castellanos can punish the Mets for pitching around Harper, they will continue to do so. This will especially be the case considering Harper has had success against Luis Severino in his career. In the five at-bats that Severino has pitched to Harper, the Phillies star has hit two home runs.
Expect the Mets to continue to be careful with the Phillies superstar and avoid giving him the chance to have the big hit. Harper can change a game in one swing and both teams are fully aware of this. New York will look to keep him at arm’s length so expect Harper to be walked again in Game 2. Take advantage of this with the +100 odds.
Cristopher Sanchez Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+105 Odds)
The Phillies made a somewhat surprising decision in this series by starting Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 over Aaron Nola. This was largely due to his success at Citizens Bank Park this season. Sanchez took a massive stride forward this year and has produced a 2.21 ERA when pitching at home compared to 5.02 on the road. Sanchez earned his way to an All-Star appearance this season and is having his greatest success in his fourth season.
The 27-year-old has thrown for 181.2 innings across his 31 appearances this season. This averages out to 5.8 innings per game. However, when just looking at his home starts, Sanchez has thrown for 110.0 innings across his 17 starts, averaging just under 6.5 innings per game. This also includes a pair of complete games.
Sanchez is the type of player who feeds off the energy of the crowd and the Phillies faithful are sure to give him plenty of this. He is a groundball pitcher who makes the game look easy when he is pitching his best. The 15.5-outs line requires him to get at least one out in the 6th inning. While the playoffs are a different beast, Sanchez has reached this number in 14 of his 17 home starts this season. Expect him to step into the national spotlight and prove to be the valuable part of this Phillies team he is. Jump on the +105 odds and expect Sanchez to play a significant role in this matchup.
Phillies Moneyline (-148 Odds)
The Mets have deservingly been acknowledged as a scrappy team that will not quit until the final out. But don’t forget that this Phillies team held a similar reputation during the past two playoff runs. While they seem to be viewed in a different light this season, this is the same Phillies team that has pulled off some improbable victories over the past two postseasons.
Expect Game 1 to serve as a wake-up call for Philadelphia and for the bats to show more life in Game 2. After Kyle Schwarber’s third-inning single, 19 consecutive Phillies hitters failed to register a hit. The Phillies ranked fourth in the MLB in runs per game this season and are due to snap out of it. Looking at the starting lineup, they have had 64 combined at-bats against Luis Severino in their careers in which they have tallied 15 hits and three home runs.
Expect this to be a scrappy game with the Mets looking to continue riding the momentum they have picked up. However, the Phillies won 95 games this season, the second-most in the MLB, for a reason. Buckle up for what feels destined to be a five-game series and for this to start with Philadelphia evening up the series 1-1.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
