These NL West rivals are meeting in the NLDS for the third time in the last four years. The Dodgers swept the Padres in 2020 on their way to the World Series championship, but San Diego got their revenge in 2022 by beating the Dodgers 3-1 before losing in the NLCS to the Phillies.
The Dodgers took the first game of the series on Saturday, 7-5. Shohei Ohtani homered in his playoff debut, and Teoscar Hernandez had a key two-run single that proved to be the difference. The Padres got out to an early 3-0 lead, but Ohtani’s homer erased the Dodgers’ deficit and turned the game into a battle of the bullpens after niether Dylan Cease or Yoshinobu Yamamoto reached the fifth inning.
In Game 2, the Dodgers will start Trade Deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty against former Dodger Yu Darvish. The Dodgers are -148 on the moneyline with the over/under set at eight runs. Here are my three favorite bets for Game 2 of this West coast rivalry.
Jack Flaherty Over 15.5 outs (+110 Odds)
Flaherty only lasted five innings when he faced the Padres in his final start of the regular season. He threw 100 pitches in that game issuing three walks. However, in five of his previous six starts he recorded at least 16 outs and reached that level in seven of his 10 starts overall with the Dodgers. He has also pitched at least six innings (18 outs in three of his four career postseason starts.
After Yamamoto couldn’t work deep in Game 1, the Dodgers will be looking for some length from Flaherty, who will be working on eight days rest. Despite his late-season downturn, I expect a strong showing from Flaherty and think that he’ll give the Dodgers at least 16 outs. Getting this prop at plus money seems like a great value Sunday.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 Odds)
Another pick I really like at slight plus odds is Tatis to pick up at least two total bases. He went 2-for-4 with a double (three total bases) in Game 1 after going 1-for-3 (four total bases) and 3-for-3 (three total bases) in the two postseason games against the Braves.
In the regular season, Tatis hit .289 over his last 19 games with a .404 wOBA. Going back to the regular season, he has produced over 1.5 total bases in eight of his last 13 games.
Tatis has also feasted in his past matchups with Flaherty, going 5-for-8 with three doubles and a home run. Even though I think that Flaherty will have a good game overall, it wouldn’t surprise me if Tatis gets an extra-base hit early and goes over this total right away.
Yu Darvish Earned Runs Allowed Over 2.5 (-120 Odds)
The Padres will be looking for the 38-year-old Darvish to give them some length on Sunday as well, but holding the Dodgers to two runs or fewer is a tall task for any pitcher.
In his only start at Dodger Stadium this year, the Dodgers got three runs in five innings against him back in April, although Darvish bounced back with seven shutout innings against them in San Diego in May. After returning from a three-month absence, Darvish has gone 3-0 in five starts but has a 3.55 ERA and an even-worse 5.34 FIP that indicates he has been a little fortunate not to give up more runs.
The Dodgers have won 10 of their last 12 games dating back to the regular season and have scored 4+ runs in nine of those games. With a shaky rotation, the Dodgers will have to slug their way through the playoffs, and I don’t see Darvish being able to contain them in Game 2.
Ultimately, I think the Dodgers win this game and take a commanding 2-0 lead headed to San Diego, but I like the odds on these three props better than taking L.A. on the moneyline since they come with more favorable odds.
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