In 2019, Sam Darnold looked destined to be the answer to a bar trivia question. On a frigid October night in the Big Apple, the third overall pick a year prior delivered a historical disasterpiece, throwing four picks and losing a fumble en route to a 33-0 drubbing at the hands of the rival Patriots. It’s the eternal lowlight in a historical collection of blunders that turned a “can’t miss prospect” into the answer to a slanderous college bar trivia question.
The playmakers meant to make his life easier were mediocre at best. An offensive line paired with a vanilla scheme only made things worse. As bad of a situation as it was, Darnold rarely even flashed signs of competence.
His natural arm talent, on full display at USC, disappeared in a New York minute. Throws downfield resembled flailing chucks, routinely plucked out of the air by the opposition. It’s fair to talk about the horrible situation he was in while also acknowledging his incompetence.
A decent cup of coffee in Carolina showed necessary promise before heading to the Bay to Kyle Shannahan QB boot camp. If nothing else, his time in San Francisco clearly got his confidence back. The swagger exhibited as a young superstar in cardinal and gold reemerged to the surface.
Many analysts, including myself, liked the Vikings‘ skill position group, yet a treacherous opening schedule and the previous mark of a peak Darnold made them a frisky squad on paper rather than a bonified playoff contender. Every expectation has been shattered and then further blown up for good measure. Darnold’s Linsanity run has stretched to four weeks, and Minnesota suddenly has championship aspirations. What does that mean for their signal callers’ fantasy relevance?
Is Sam Darnold a QB1?
In short—somehow, yes. For the moment, Darnold has elevated from a nice story to a legit MVP candidate, which should have him locked into the starting role. Even with J.J. McCarthy done for the season, we’ve seen plenty of backups get off to hot starts, look shaky, and get tossed in the dog house.
The teammates and coach, Kevin O’Connell, seem confident in Darnold’s abilities. Often, you don’t see organizations give their QB2 so many opportunities in obvious passing downs to sling it and make a play. He’s had at least 24 passing attempts a week, and that number would likely be higher if his team hadn’t gotten out to so many monster leads.
In fantasy, he’s QB5, ahead of Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud, and Patrick Mahomes. The gauntlet first month of the campaign eases quickly, including a stretch against five clubs with a .500 or worse record. The division is weirdly offensive-dominant, as both Detroit and Green Bay have secondaries that have gotten torched.
Jordan Addison is back in the lineup and is overqualified to take advantage of weak-side defenses trying to contain the best wide receiver in the sport. Top tight end T.J. Hockenson is returning to practice and should be in the lineup in the coming weeks. The stars are aligning, and as long as Darnold is upright, he can be effective.
Don’t let one poor performance revert your opinion on the 27-year-old. The sample size is too small to acknowledge if this is who Darnold is going forward, but it’s hard to imagine his play completely falling off a cliff. He’s still prone to the occasional knucklehead decision or irrational hurl, but those failures have dramatically lessened.
Due to the barren fantasy quarterback landscape and his position in a high-caliber offense, Darnold is a clear-cut QB1 option. In DFS, his price has risen, but not enough to deter you from slotting him in your lineup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is xaiver-aguiar and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on). Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
