It’s the Saints and Chiefs on Monday Night Football! Somehow, the Chiefs are 4-0 heading into their Week 5 matchup against the Saints. Will they be able to stay perfect or will the Saints hand them their first loss?
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (KC at NO)
Captain’s Picks
Chris Olave ($15,000 CP): Once upon a time, not paying up for a Chief in the Captain’s spot was nonsense. How could you not pay up for Patrick Mahomes, or Travis Kelce? Well, that day is here, and we’re not doing so. The beauty of this is that we can still afford a reasonable lineup, even with dropping $15,000 for Olave as our captain. I simply can’t justify Mahomes at captain with a depleted offense and someone who hasn’t scored more than 17.3 DKFP through four games. Maybe you can justify Kelce in an expanded role and after seeing nine targets last week. For me, at least, Olave is the most consistent player to captain and thats where I’ll land. The matchup for Alvin Kamara in a tough matchup and I’m not comfortable with locking him in at captain at $17,100.
Now that we have said all the people I DON’T want to captain, let’s talk about Olave. He’s second on the team in targets, trailing Rashid Shaheed by one. Despite that, Olave leads the team with 265 receiving yards and 13.3 YPR. Despite how close in overall stats these two are, I like the matchups better for Olave. He’ll mostly line up against CB Trent McDuffie, who has allowed a 67% reception rate on 15 targets for 9.2 YPR. Shaheed will see more of S Chamarri Conner in coverage. While I think both Shaheed and Olave are closer than maybe one would imagine, I’m giving the nod to Olave at captain.
UTIL Plays
Travis Kelce ($8,600): The glory days of Travis Kelce are likely behind him at this point. Yet, he’s $400 less than Xavier Worthy, who I’m not convinced is going to be peppered with targets now. Even with the injury to Rice last week, Worthy only drew four total targets. He’ll get the deep shots and his fantasy output will be extremely boom-or-bust, making Kelce the safer option.
Kelce saw a season-high nine targets last week, turning that into seven catches for and 89 yards. He’s yet to reach the end zone and has only seen two targets in the red zone. But, with no Hollywood Brown or Rice, Kelce is going to be forced into a WR1 type role. The Saints haven’t allowed a touchdown to the tight end position and are just above league average in fantasy points allowed at 10.4.
Kelce should also benefit from Mahomes lack of downfield shots thus far. He’s only thrown for 20+ yards seven times this season, which ranks 32 of 34 qualified quarterbacks. On the season, Mahomes is averaging 7.5 YPA, which is the second-lowest of his career. With this PPR scoring format, Kelce could be one of the highest fantasy scorers, even if the yards don’t add up to much.
Alvin Kamara ($11,400): I’ll admit, I’m a bit worried about this matchup for Kamara. From a fantasy perspective, now defense has been tougher against the run than the Chiefs. They’ve allowed an average of just 14.6 DKFP to the position. For reference, the Bills are at the top with 36.8 DKFP. However, the Chiefs have faced two teams that run the ball heavily (BAL, LAC) and two teams that don’t (ATL, CIN). The Ravens had 185 total rushing yards on the ground, while the Chargers had just 55.
The Saints are running the ball at the highest rate in the league. Doing so 57% of the time, the volume will be there for Kamara. He carried the ball at least 15 times in every game while also drawing five targets per game. I think it’s still tough to figure out if the Chiefs are a solid run defense are not but this will be one of their toughest tests. The Saints are nearly six point underdogs in this game, so catching out of the backfield could be vital for Kamara in this game.
Justin Watson ($3,400): Figuring out who’ll be the top receiver behind Kelce is anyone’s guess. I don’t believe Worthy will see consistent targets, I think those could go to Watson. He logged the second-most snaps behind Worthy last week and was targeted three times. It doesn’t sound like much but it’s three more than Ju Ju Smith-Schuster saw despite playing on 32 snaps. Regardless which receiver you take behind Kelce, it’s going to feel like a gamble. I think Watson is the safer choice between these cheaper depth options.
Fades
Xavier Worthy ($9,000): This is a scary fade. Worth can quickly make you regret the fade with one play. For me, it simply comes down to a salary choice. Worthy at $9,000 is quite steep. When you look at his game log, you truly can see the boom-or-bust nature of game. Two games he scored 16.3 and 20.8 DKFP. The other two, 5.0 and 4.2 DKFP. Even with the loss of Rice last week, Worthy didn’t see an uptick in targets and landed on four for the third straight game. As mentioned earlier, we aren’t seeing Mahomes chucking the ball downfield as we have in the past.
If I’m beat by Worthy, I’m fine with it. I know the risk of fading him. But, if it comes down to the lottery ticket play with Worthy or the more consistent plays from the players around him, like Kelce ($8,600) or Olave ($10,000), I’m going with the latter.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (KC at NO)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
