As far as it relates to the Chicago Bears’ offensive weapons, it feels like four weeks of the season has been a rather excruciating lifetime. Not least of which for folks who drafted DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, respectively. Even with offseason acquisition Keenan Allen in the fold, it felt like Moore and Odunze had the highest potential upside with alleged generational talent Caleb Williams at quarterback.
Making lineup decisions with both of these two started to become a more discouraging experience than anything; there’s no consistency, no explosiveness, no competitive spectacle. It all feels like empty yards, even when they do produce.
So—do we roll them out there this week?
Analysis
I was surprised to see how similarly Moore and Odunze grade as receivers by some of NFL Next Gen Stats’s advanced opportunity metrics.
Here’s how they compare:
- Expected receiving yards: Odunze – 209; Moore – 206
- Yards per route: Odunze – 1.1; Moore – 1.3
- Air yards: Odunze – 379; Moore – 324
- Target rate: Odunze – 15.9%; Moore – 22.8%
- Total EPA: Odunze – -5.2; Moore – -5.6
- Separation score: Odunze – 2.6; Moore – 2.8
- NGS receiver rating: Odunze – 64.8; Moore – 76.7
Strikingly similar, no? I’m not sure I’m overly impressed with how pound-for-pound their opportunities have been. Is this just a happy accident, or is this a statistical manifestation of an unimaginative, uninspired route tree for two outside wide receivers?
According to NFL NGS, here’s Odunze’s route chart:
And here’s Moore’s:
I think we have every reason to expect OC Shane Waldron to start generating more across-the-middle/between-the-hashes routes for Moore and Odunze. All these route charts show for me, with regards to creativity, is a concerted effort to get D.J. Moore touches around the line of scrimmage.
Caleb Williams is going to have trouble beating NFL secondaries along the outside. The most successful routes for both of these receivers have been within fifteen yards of the line of scrimmage, and closer to the middle of the field than the sidelines.
Bottom line
I’m not convinced Shane Waldron is a great offensive coordinator. It’s making me more and more nervous as the weeks go on that Caleb Williams doesn’t look as if he’s being set up to succeed. We already are strongly under the impression that the failed Justin Fields experiment in Chicago occurred at an organizational level. It might already be red alert time for the Williams’s rookie season.
Having said that—don’t forget Derek Carr absolutely torched this secondary in Week 1. The Panthers offense is firing on all cylinders, and this might force the Bears to throw a lot. Expect a concerted effort on the ground from the Bears with a resurgent D’Andre Swift and a sneaky-good Roschon Johnson.
But I’m starting both Rome Odunze and DJ Moore this week, if only because this might be one of the last weeks I give them a chance.
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