Last week, he grabbed eight passes on 11 targets for 83 yards, and carried the ball twice on the ground for fourteen yards. A prolific day, to be sure, but Shaheed played the Falcons defense in Week 4. We just watched them get shredded by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers’ passing offense on Thursday.
It’s a legitimate concern that Shaheed, in this inconsistent New Orleans offense, might be a pure boom-or-bust option. His goose egg in Week 3 has only materialized that trepidation to a heightened magnitude for fantasy managers.
It’s a particularly tricky lineup decision, since Shaheed plays the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. You expect him to see his fair share of Trent McDuffie, who’ll also be covering Chris Olave.
As of this writing, Shaheed is in 45.0% of starting lineups as the WR23 in PPR scoring. An even split of a start/sit sample size. We love it!
Let’s break down the stats behind the decision.
Analysis
Here’s a picture of Shaheed’s route tree to date.
As you can see, Klint Kubiak has Shaheed running all sorts of short-to-intermediate routes. He’s not just a deep-play threat in the way the offense chooses to utilize him. It’s worth noting because most pure boom-or-bust players tend to have route trees that are significantly more vertical than this one.
Which means I feel comfortable saying that Shaheed’s promising air yardage numbers (he ranked tenth going into Week 5 with 380) are not altogether empty. Carr isn’t just launching incomplete rainbows 40 yards over Shaheed’s head to inflate his opportunity stats.
Among receivers with at least 25 targets, here’s where Shaheed ranks in advanced receiving metrics as per NFL Next Gen Stats so far this season:
- Expected receiving yards: 23rd (229)
- Yards per route: Sixth (2.7)
- Air yards: Tenth (389)
- Target rate: 16th (27.7%)
- Total EPA: 21st (3.0)
- Separation score: Fourth (3.3)
- NGS receiver rating: 14th (104.1)
What we’re looking at, here, is elite opportunity with middle-of-the-road (so far) converted production. And, keep in mind: Shaheed currently ranks as the WR23. He’d be within the top-15 WRs if, say, three or four more of his opportunities had generated actual regulation catches.
Bottom Line
While it may superficially seem like a legitimate risk starting Shaheed against the Chiefs, the advanced data tells us to trust his ability to create separation and generate high-value, efficient touches when given the opportunity. He’s not always going to break free for long touchdowns, but he’ll certainly do that at an impressive clip.
It feels like Monday Night Football might be a big party for the Chiefs this week. I expect lots of Travis Kelce involvement. You know the Saints have this one circled on their calendar.
I’m starting Shaheed thinking that, maybe, Monday’s game shakes out to be a bit more high-scoring than Chiefs games so far. He’ll continue to get his chances. Most importantly, if he converts just a shade more of them, we’re looking at a WR2 start for Week 5.
One Derek Carr rainbow, really, is all we’re asking for.
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