The NFL is full of surprises this year, and Week 4 was no different. The Buccaneers embarrassed the Eagles, while the Jets lost at home to the Broncos and their 60 passing yards. Nico Collins continued to dominate, and spoiler alert, I will be taking his over in this article for the third consecutive week. With that being said, below are my favorite prop bets for Week 5 of the NFL season on DraftKings Sportsbook.
OVER Picks
RB Jordan Mason Over 87.5 Rush Yds (-110)
Jordan Mason has looked incredible while filling in for the injured Christian McCaffrey this season, and he has hit the over on this total in three of his four games. Mason has been seeing a lot of volume this year, with his 91 rush attempts leading the NFL. He has still done well with those carries, averaging 4.9 a pop and is second in the league in rushing yards (447). He is averaging close to 112 yards per game, way above his listed total for this week.
The matchup for him this week is a great one, facing a Cardinals defense ranked 28th in the league against the run. Arizona gives up 146.5 yards per game on the ground, and Mason pounds the rock more than anyone. Between volume, production and matchup, this bet ticks all the boxes. I would not be surprised if Mason goes for over 100 yards for the fourth time this season.
QB Jayden Daniels Over 205.5 Pass Yds (-110)
Daniels does not have the easiest matchup this week, but despite that, I still like the over here. Daniels has gone over this total in each of his last three games and is currently 12th in the NFL in passing yards, just seven yards behind Patrick Mahomes.
The only reason this total is so low is the respect that DraftKings has for the Browns’ defense. Although they may not be as dominant against the pass this year as they were in 2023, they are still 10th in passing yards allowed. Cleveland gives up an average of 175.8 pass yards per game. However, the Browns’ defense has not exactly faced a plethora of elite quarterbacks. They’ve faced Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew in their first four weeks. Prescott is the only good quarterback they’ve faced, and Dallas was up by so much at halftime they stopped throwing the ball. Daniels presents the toughest challenge for the Browns’ secondary this season, and I believe this total is a little disrespectful based on what the rookie has been doing the last three weeks.
WR Nico Collins Over 80.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Surprise surprise! As promised, Nico Collins is back for the third consecutive week. He is not getting the national attention he deserves, but a few more touchdowns in the next few weeks would definitely change that. Collins leads the league in receiving yards by 103, despite having nine fewer targets than second-placed Malik Nabers.
He has hit this number in each of his first four games, so why is his receiving prop so low? Well, the Bills’ secondary has been pretty good this year. Buffalo is sixth in the NFL against the pass, but I am still taking Collins to go over here. From the eye test, he looks like the best receiver in football to me. The numbers back it up, so I will take his over against any defense right now until someone proves that they can slow this man down.
UNDER Picks
QB Deshaun Watson Under 211.5 Pass Yds (-115)
This total makes absolutely no sense to me. Watson has not eclipsed 200 passing yards in a game this season, and now his total is set over 210? I have no idea why this total is so high, and I will be all over his under this week. Cleveland is playing a Commanders team that isn’t amazing against the pass, ranking 22nd in the league, but Watson has also failed to crack 200 against the 31st-ranked Jaguars. The Browns have also faced Dallas (20th), Las Vegas (17th) and the New York Giants (14th). It’s not like Watson is going from facing some of the best secondaries in the NFL to an abysmal one.
The Commanders should provide a similar challenge to each of the first four weeks, so why will Watson suddenly explode for 210+ passing yards? I have to be missing something here because this line makes no sense. Give me the under all day in this spot.
Dolphins Under 1.5 Total TDs (+130)
I am going for a team prop bet in this spot, and I am fading the Miami Dolphins. This is a team that is obviously missing Tua Tagovailoa quite a bit. Miami has scored one touchdown in their last two games without their signal caller, so I don’t expect them to score two or more in this game. Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, I just don’t see a way for this offense to score twice. Tyler Huntley did not look great, to say the least in his debut last week, going 14-of-22 for only 96 yards and no scores.
Their opposition, New England, faced some much better competition earlier this season in Cincinnati, New York, Seattle and San Francisco. This is easily the worst offense they’ve faced, and yet they are top 10 in touchdowns allowed this year. I expect the Dolphins to go under this total, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Patriots came away with an ugly, low-scoring win.
RB Kyren Williams Under 82.5 Rush Yds (-120)
Williams has been solid this season, but this total is just way too high for me. He has hit the over on this number in two of the first four games, but strictly due to the volume of carries. Despite being tied for fourth in rushing attempts, Williams is 16th in the league in yards (258). Among qualified runners, his 3.5 yards per carry is 43rd best in the league.
To make matters worse, Williams has a tough matchup this week in Green Bay. The Packers are 11th in the NFL against the run, only giving up 109.3 yards per game on the ground. Williams would have to get 24 carries on his current average of 3.5 to hit the over on this total, and if the Rams want this game to be competitive, I just can’t see them running it that many times against a good run defense with an ineffective runner. I like Williams to go well below this number here.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
