Week 5 of the NFL season kicked off with a thrilling overtime victory by the Falcons over the Buccaneers on Thursday night. Kirk Cousins came through in primetime and is beginning to build some momentum with his new team.
The rest of the NFL will attempt to reach the level of play we saw in the opening Week 5 matchup. This is a highly anticipated slate of games with only three games holding spreads of more than four points.
As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here’s a look at a few players who could have the inside track to outperform their price points. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup still, but here are some lower-budget names that could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Geno Smith ($5,900)
Despite it occurring in a loss, Geno Smith is coming off a career-best performance last week. During Monday Night’s loss to the Lions, Smith attempted a career-high 56 pass attempts and threw for 395 yards. Looking at the season overall, Smith ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, second in completion percentage, and ninth in QBR. He has revived his NFL outlook and gives Seattle a chance to win on an every week basis.
Heading into this week, Smith and the Seahawks will prepare to face off with the New York Giants. The Giants enter with a 1-3 record and will be without their prized rookie Malik Nabers as he suffered a concussion last week. Nabers has been the lifeblood of the New York offense leading the league in targets while ranking third in receiving yards and hauling in three touchdowns. In addition, the Giants’ defense has struggled to start the year. They have been middle-of-the-pack by most metrics, but rank 20th in passing defense.
Seattle clearly trusts Smith and allows him to air the ball out plenty. He is tied for the seventh-best-producing quarterback in DraftKings fantasy points so far this season and will have the opportunity to build on it in Week 5. Getting Smith as the 11th-most expensive quarterback option is solid value.
Anthony Richardson ($6,000) or Joe Flacco ($5,500)
The Indianapolis Colts are set to face off with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it is unclear which quarterback will be starting under center. Anthony Richardson was forced to leave the game last week due to a hip injury and has been limited at practice this week. Joe Flacco stepped in during his absence and led the team to a victory over the Steelers with a solid performance. Keep an eye on the injury report and official announcement leading up to this game, but Indianapolis is in a position to succeed this week with either QB.
Through the opening four weeks of the season, Jacksonville ranks 30th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. They have forced the fewest turnovers thus far, and are allowing the second-most passing yards and the sixth-most passing touchdowns.
Anthony Richardson likely has the widest gap in peak level of play and the floor of his abilities for just about any player in the NFL. The highs and lows of Richardson can come within just a few snaps of each other but his caliber of talent is evident. It is in the best interest of the Colts to allow the 22-year-old to continue playing through his mistakes as they hope he refines into their franchise centerpiece. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense provides Richardson with a great chance to play to put forth a strong performance. He was the 5th-best scoring fantasy football quarterback in the opening week and has a chance to replicate this level of performance in Week 5.
If Richardson is unable to go, expect Joe Flacco to pick up right where he left off last week. The 39-year-old proved he still has something left in the tank and completed 16 of his 26 passes for 168 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Flacco was able to turn around the Browns’ season in Cleveland last year and still looks to have the necessary ability. While the ceiling with Richardson is higher, Flacco also has a positive fantasy football outlook so consider putting either in your lineup if the Florida product can’t go.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford ($5,800)
Through the opening four weeks of the season, Jerome Ford ranks 23rd among running backs in fantasy scoring. He is involved in both the passing and rushing game in Cleveland and has eclipsed 13 touches in three of the four games thus far. Ford has had at least 64 yards from scrimmage in each game and reached the end zone once.
Heading into this week, the Cleveland Browns are set to face off with the Washington Commanders. The early success of Jayden Daniels has drastically altered the outlook of the franchise in both the short- and long-term. Washington enters with a 3-1 record and is a team that no one wants to face. But Ford’s ability as a pass-catcher provides him the chance to be active in the offense even if Cleveland falls behind and is forced to only attack through the air. Ford ranks second on the team in receptions with 17 this season, trailing only Jerry Jeudy.
He lacks a bit of the big play potential that you hope for in lower-priced options, but Ford’s workload will keep him fantasy-relevant. Expect him to be involved in the Browns’ attack and outperform his 12.9 fantasy point average on DraftKings scoring.
D’Andre Swift ($5,700)
After signing a fairly lucrative contract with the Bears this offseason, it has not been the greatest start for D’Andre Swift. Through the opening three weeks of the season, he was one of the least productive running backs that has been seen, taking 37 carries for just 68 total yards. Finally, he found some success last week and broke free for 93 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushing attempts.
The struggles by Swift should not only fall on his shoulders as the Bears’ offensive line has limited the offense’s level of success. But it does seem like the offensive line is beginning to turn things around and the entire Bears team is benefitting from it. Expect Swift to be at the forefront of this and to build off last week’s success.
In addition, the Bears will be facing the 1-3 Carolina Panthers this week. They rank dead last in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed so far this season. When looking just at the rushing splits, they rank 29th in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. Swift is the unquestioned top running back on the Chicago roster as Caleb Williams ranks second on the team in rush attempts with 16 on the season. Look for the Bears to have a chance at controlling this game and for Swift to be heavily involved in the attack. He finished as the 3rd-best fantasy running back last week and should have the opportunity to replicate this in Week 5.
Justice Hill ($5,300)
Derrick Henry has been dominant to start this season, and is the third-ranked fantasy running back based on DraftKings scoring. However, this has not entirely taken Justice Hill out of the offense. Hill has been on the field for 35% of snaps or greater in all four games and has found a role for himself in the passing game. The fifth-year back is coming off his best game of the season against the Bills in which he tallied 96 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.
The Ravens will be facing off with the Cincinnati Bengals this week which is a highly-anticipated matchup. The 1-3 start to the season has put pressure on the Bengals who cannot afford not to give their best effort on an every-week basis. Expect Cincinnati to come out swinging in this game and for their offensive attack to be lethal.
Whichever team can control the game script and take a lead will play a factor in the fantasy football impact of Justice Hill. But if the Ravens fall behind, expect some additional opportunities for Hill in the passing game. He ranks 29th among all running backs in fantasy football scoring this year and is tied for the 28th-most expensive running back option this week. Expect him to build off last week’s success and produce another solid performance.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300)
It has been a frustrating start to the 2024 NFL season for Brandon Aiyuk. After an offseason and training camp that was sidetracked by contract negotiations and trade rumors, Aiyuk finally signed his extnsion on the dotted line and was available for the opening week. But the Arizona State product has not lived up to his typical bar of expectations. Through four weeks has tallied just 13 receptions for 167 yards and has yet to get in the endzone. He ranks 59th among all wide receivers in fantasy production thus far.
The 2-2 49ers are set to face off with the 1-3 Cardinals this week with both NFC West teams in need of a victory. Arizona has an offense capable of exploding but also has struggled to get stops defensively. Don’t be surprised if this matchup turns into a shootout and for there to be plenty of fantasy football production to go around.
Aiyuk’s lack of impact has been even more surprising considering the injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. Jauan Jenning has been the guy who has stepped up, but Aiyuk remains the most talented pass-catcher on the roster. Look for Aiyuk to have his breakout performance this week with the rust officially being kicked off in the first four games of the season. This is a bit of a risky play, but his breakout is destined to happen at some point this season and the divisional matchup is a perfect opportunity for him to begin changing the narrative of his season.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,600)
There has been plenty of praise surrounding the Giants’ star rookie Malik Nabers to start the season. But not enough attention has been paid to third-year pass-catcher Wan’Dale Robinson who has taken a massive leap forward this season. Through the opening four weeks of the season, he has tallied 26 receptions for 194 yards and a touchdown. Robinson also ranks seventh in targets, and sixth in catches across the entire NFL. He is 25th among wide receivers in fantasy production thus far.
As the Giants prepare to face off with the Seattle Seahawks, the door is open for Robinson to make an even larger impact. Nabers will miss the game due to a concussion sustained last week which moves Robinson up to the top passing option.
Robinson has battled some injury issues this week as well, but signs are pointing towards him being available. While the defensive attention will be more notable without Nabers, the Kentucky product appears ready for the challenge. Expect a significant target share to be sent in Robinson’s direction and for this to result in a successful fantasy football impact.
Keon Coleman ($4,700)
The Buffalo Bills are set to face off with the Houston Texans this week in the highly anticipated return of Stefon Diggs. While there will be plenty of eyes on Diggs himself, it is Keon Coleman who has my eyes for making his impact felt. The rookie has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career through the opening four weeks but has tallied eight receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown. While his best days are still ahead, Coleman still ranks 67th among wide receivers in fantasy football production so far this year.
The most notable reason for optimism is Buffalo’s loss of Khalil Shakir. The third-year wide receiver will be missing the matchup due to an ankle injury but has established himself as the number-one option in the offense. Through the opening four weeks, Shakir has tallied 18 receptions for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Buffalo will need to muster some sort of production in the passing game and Coleman may will be their best option. Expect this week to be the most opportunity he has seen in the NFL. Getting him as the 42nd most-expensive wide receiver this week is great value and one that could win you the week.
Tight End
Cole Kmet ($4,300)
Similar to the rest of the Chicago Bears’ offense, Cole Kmet has a tough start to the season. He has turned things around the past two weeks recording 13 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Chicago has sped up their offensive tempo and made it a point to get the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands quickly.
Cole Kmet has been one of the primary beneficiaries of this strategic change. As the Bears face off with the Panthers this week, look for Kmet and Williams to continue to build their chemistry. The 25-year-old tight end is beginning to establish himself as a safety blanket within the offense and has a porous defense that he will be able to produce on. Considering how bleak the production has been across the board at the tight-end position, there are worse options than Kmet this week.
Zach Ertz ($3,800)
Another deep choice at the tight end position is Zach Ertz. The 33-year-old’s best days are surely in the past, but he still has a pulse to his ability on the field. Through the opening four weeks of the season, Ertz has tallied 15 receptions for 150 yards. He has had at least three catches in all four games and trails only Terry McLaurin for most targets on the Commanders. Ertz ranks 10th among all tight ends in fantasy football production this year.
Whether or not he gets in the end zone will play a drastic role in his level of fantasy football success. But the guaranteed targets and matchup with the Browns make Ertiz an intriguing option as a plug-and-play tight end. Similar to Kmet, Etrz is serving as a bit of a safety blanket for his rookie quarterback. Look for this to continue in Week 5 and for Ertz to outperform his price point.
Defense & Special Teams
Indianapolis Colts ($2,600)
The Indianapolis Colts have gotten some tough injury news this week as they will be without star running back Jonathan Taylor and the status of Anthony Richardson remains uncertain. If they are to have a chance at producing a victory, it will likely take a hard-nosed defensive battle.
Luckily, the Colts have the personnel and the opponent to make this possible. Indianapolis will be facing off with the 0-4 Jacksonville Jaguars who have been the NFL’s biggest disaster to start the season. Trevor Lawrence and the offense rank 29th in scoring on the year and 25th in yards tallied. Jacksonville also ranks 30th in both these metrics defensively.
Expect this to be a messy football game that you likely want to leave reserved for the side television. But expect the Colts to have a successful week that leads to fantasy production. The Jaguars have not scored more than 20 points in a game this season and have some internal issues they need to fix. Expect the problems to continue showing and for the Jaguars to fail to inflict the necessary damage for the Colts not to have a successful fantasy football performance.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
