Let’s get into Week 5 NFL picks worth considering from Sunday’s Pick6 main slate, which features six games.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence
Passing Yards: 238.5
Lawrence hasn’t sniffed this number all season. Against most other teams, LESS would be the way to go.
Against the Colts, it’s a different story.
The last two quarterbacks to face Indianapolis have posted season-highs in passing yards. Justin Fields saw a 27% boost in passing yards from his prior 2024 season high. Caleb Williams saw a 108% increase — then promptly dipped down well below 200 passing yards in his very next start.
The play: MORE
Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Keenan Allen
Receiving Yards: 42.5
Week 4 marked Allen’s return from injury, and he didn’t do a whole lot. He logged just 19 receiving yards on three catches. Now, he was only targeted three times, but that’s the telling number.
DJ Moore emerged as Caleb Williams’ preferred target in the weeks without Allen. Rome Odunze had his big Week 3, and there’s clearly a desire for the Chicago rookies to get on the same page. And just when Allen reentered the mix for Week 4, D’Andre Swift was targeted a team-high seven times.
Allen may not be the odd man out, but he doesn’t seem to be the answer for Williams at this stage.
The play: LESS
Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns
Jayden Daniels
Rushing Yards: 49.5
Daniels has outperformed this number once, and it was his NFL debut. Teams are adjusting to the rookie phenom. Still, he’s averaged 10 carries per game over Washington’s last three, along with 4.33 yards per rush attempt.
With Daniels showing growth in the passing game already, he’s going to be a handful for Cleveland. Opposing quarterbacks haven’t put up much in the way of rushing yards vs. the Browns, but Cleveland hasn’t faced a quarterback that moves like Daniels yet.
The play: MORE
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
Zack Moss
Rushing Yards: 41.5
Baltimore has not been a fun opponent for opposing running backs. Only one running back has logged at least 42 rushing yards vs. the Ravens, and that was when they were shaking off the rust in Week 1 (Isiah Pacheco had 45 on 15 carries).
Moss has logged more than 41.5 rushing yards in three of four games, eclipsing 50 on two occasions. But this number is a dip from his 46.8-yard average for a reason.
The Ravens are going to give the Cincy RB trouble.
The play: LESS
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Nico Collins
Receiving Yards: 81.5
Not the wide receiver who’s getting the most attention in terms of storyline this week. But, that’s exactly what makes him appealing.
Collins has crushed this number all season. His lowest receiving yards output has been 86. Normally, seeing a low number against a high average might seem alarming. But, that’s still the highest receiving yards total from this slate (as of writing).
Buffalo hasn’t given up many miraculous days to opposing wide receivers, but they haven’t been perfect either. With there being extra motivation to shut down Stefon Diggs following Buffalo’s first loss of the season, CJ Stroud should have a few extra openings to hit his top target.
The play: MORE
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs
Receptions: 5.5
Diggs might pop off a big play or two, but Stroud will not be able to feed him with ease. Diggs logged six receptions last game, however, that’s only the second time he’s gone that high all season. He has seen his targets go up since seeing six passes come his way in both Weeks 1 and 2. Still, this is where Buffalo’s defense should impact the passing game.
And while this play is narrative-driven in part, only two opposing wide receivers have logged six-plus catches in a game vs. Buffalo. More importantly, those players were not teammates.
The play: LESS
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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