There are plenty of fantasy managers out there who stashed Justice Hill with the hope of—and every intent to—starting him in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s been one of the most added fantasy commodity off the waiver wire, even though he’s clearly second on the depth chart to resurgent superstar Derrick Henry.
And yet, Hill still remains only around 30% rostered, and is only featured in 15.4% of starting lineups this week.
We all just added Hill after his breakout game against the Bills. Now we’re spooked? I know it’s October, but let’s screw our heads on straight and make an informed lineup decision, shall we?
Analysis
There are going to be games when Hill is the odd man out in this triple-option offense. It makes sense to be hesitant to roll him out there weekly. His role in this offense—or perhaps it’s just the nature of this Todd Monken/Baltimore Ravens offense in its current state—suggests inconsistent production.
However, I’d encourage you to take a look at just how valuable a receiving asset Justice Hill has been for Lamar Jackson &co. before you try to anticipate this offense looking away from him.
Of running backs with at least fifteen targets this season, Hill ranks as follows:
- Target rate: First (34.0%)
- Yards per route: First (3.0)
- Yards after the catch: Fourth (168)
- EPA per route: First (0.22)
- Separation score: T-Fourth (6.0)
- Catch rate over expected: Third (6.1%)
- End zone targets: T-Second (1)
- Expected receiving fantasy points: Fifth (22.5)
Hill was buried on the depth chart last year by Keaton Mitchell’s breakout, but, remember, the book on him out of Oklahoma State University was exactly what we’re seeing this season in Baltimore. He’s a super-utility speedster who creates enough space to get the ball, and then cranks out yards with the ball in his hands.
And, most importantly, all he’s done is return value on a per-touch/per-route for Todd Monken and this Ravens offense. They’re not going to phase him out entirely.
As for his matchup: Right now, the Bengals flat-out stink against the run. They rank 25th in the NFL in rush defense, with a unit that allows an average of 145.5 yards per game. We love that.
Worse, still, for the Bengals (but encouraging as all get-out for Hill’s managers) is how this has translated to their scoring defense. Cincinnati gives up 26 points per game, which ranks them 27th in the league. In the red zone, the Bengals allow touchdowns to opponents 58.3% of the time. We love this even more—potential for paydirt!
Bottom line
I get the sense this divisional matchup is going to be more of a fast-paced, barn-burning bout than it will whatsoever be a slow, bruising grind. The Bengals will need to put up a number in the ballpark of a zillion to win any game with this defense. The Ravens will have to hang a number of their own.
This shapes up as a plus-plus week for Hill with regards to expected usage and matchup value. Pop him in your flex and rejoice.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
