The Vikings face the Jets in the first NFL London game of the season. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Vikings (-2.5) vs. Jets o/u 40
Vikings Team Breakdown
It is safe to say that the Vikings have been the best team in the NFL this season. Sam Darnold is playing on a very high level and connecting well with Justin Jefferson and the other weapons in Minnesota. Brian Flores has put on a defensive coaching masterclass so far this season and has managed to slow down some of the league’s best quarterbacks. The only question is how sustainable this is with a roster that many people thought was a fringe playoff team at best.
Jets Team Breakdown
The Vikings have the best defense in the NFL this season by basically every metric, including EPA/play. However, the Jets’ defense is also starting to play at an incredibly high level. They were the 3rd best defense in the NFL by EPA/play last season and if you remove their lackluster Week 1 performance this season, they are the 2nd best defense in the NFL by EPA/play. If the Jets can maintain that level of defense that they played last season, along with improved offensive play then they can be a very good team.
Outside of the game against New England, however, they have not been able to pair a great offensive performance with a great defensive performance. The Jets had the worst offense in the NFL last season by EPA/play so basically anything is an improvement from that. Overall, they have been about a league-average offense, ranking 16th in EPA/play. The Jets’ offense definitely has room to grow with the talent they have at the skill positions but this will be a tough test against Minnesota.
Pick and Prediction
The Vikings have been playing at an incredibly high level this season but there is bound to be some negative regression at some point. For example, in the game against the 49ers, San Francisco had a punt blocked and turned it over on downs twice on three of their five drives. In the second half, they turned the ball over on two of their five drives. So, on 50% of San Francisco’s drives, they turned the ball over in some form. That is not a sustainable way to win football games.
Similarly, against Green Bay last week, the Packers had seven first-half drives. They missed two field goals, threw two interceptions and turned the ball over on downs on five of those seven drives. Green Bay then turned it over on downs, lost a fumble and threw an interception in the second half as well and still nearly mounted a comeback.
The Vikings have also been fortunate to face Jordan Love in his first game back from injury, the 49ers without Christian McCaffrey and the Texans without Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Basically, a lot of things have broken in Minnesota’s favor to give them this perfect start to the season. The Jets are mostly healthy and what Aaron Rodgers has done really well this season is not turn the ball over. Rodgers only has one turnover through four games and it was on a freak play that a pass bounced off a receiver’s hands and went straight to a defender.
If Rodgers can protect the ball and feed his skill position players, they should be able to move the ball against the Minnesota defense. The Jets’ defense has been playing at a very high level since Week 1 and should be able to slow down Minnesota. If the Jets’ pass rush can get to Sam Darnold then they can force some mistakes. The Jets are also one of the only teams in the league with cornerbacks that can hang with the Vikings’ wide receivers. The Jets are in desperate need of a win and they should put forward their best effort in this game and pick up a win.
Best Bet: Jets +2.5
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