There is an exciting Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Chiefs. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chiefs (-5.5) vs. Saints o/u 42.5
Chiefs Team Breakdown
The Chiefs have been scraping by to an undefeated 4-0 start this season. Each win has been a one-possession game and they have had some fortunate breaks go their way in those one-possession games. The offense is 13th in the league in EPA/play and things are getting tougher as they are now without Hollywood Brown, Rashee Rice and Isaiah Pacheco. Last week, Patrick Mahomes went back to old reliable: Travis Kelce. Kelce’s seven catches, and one explosive play from Xavier Worthy, provided basically all of the offense for Kansas City.
The Chiefs are 14th in EPA/play on defense. Overall, that has them as the 12th-best team in the NFL by net EPA/play, which is not indicative of a 4-0 record. There is bound to be some regression hitting the Chiefs soon as they try to move forward with a makeshift offense.
Saints Team Breakdown
It has been a tale of two Saints teams so far this season. Through the first two weeks of the season, their offense led the NFL in EPA/play and their defense was second in EPA/play, making them by far the best team in the league in net EPA/play. The past two weeks, their offense ranks 23rd and their defense ranks 15th. Truthfully, this team is somewhere in the middle of those two sets of numbers.
The Saints offense line has exceeded expectations early on in the season and Derek Carr is clicking with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Alvin Kamara is also having another monster season and is one of the early frontrunners for Offensive Player of the Year. Their defense isn’t exceptional, but against the offense the Chiefs are putting on the field, they should be able to hold up just fine.
Pick and Prediction
Saints Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak brought a new look to the Saints’ offense which helped them put up insane numbers in their first two games. In the past two weeks, defenses were able to make adjustments to what the Saints were doing. It is now Kubiak’s turn to make adjustments and find ways to attack the Chiefs’ defense. Alvin Kamara and Rashid Shaheed provide a lot of opportunities for a playcaller to be creative and come up with unique ways to beat a defense like Kansas City’s.
The Saints should have a decent amount of success on offense and throw downfield on a Chiefs defense that has been pretty vulnerable to the pass. Overall, this will be a lower-scoring game, as the Chiefs understand the position they are in with their current offensive weapons. Andy Reid and Mahomes should be pretty conservative and just hang in there until the fourth quarter and then try to put together the drive that wins the game, like they usually do.
When you need Patrick Mahomes to just win a game, he is one of the best ATS quarterbacks of all time. When you need him to cover with margin, he has a losing record. In his career, Mahomes is 38-43-3 ATS as a favorite of more than three points. The Chiefs are 1-2 ATS in that spot this season. The Chiefs may take some time to adjust to their lack of offensive weapons. The Saints should be able to keep this close and this could easily come down to a field goal either way.
Best Bet: Saints +5.5
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
