Well, here we are. Five weeks in. Sam Darnold is the only other undefeated quarterback besides Patrick Mahomes, Joe Flacco is back under center, and the Commanders look like the best team in the NFC East –– just as we expected.
Here are a few sides and player props to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook as we enter another week of madness in the NFL.
Broncos -2.5 vs. Raiders
Javonte Williams Over 74.5 Rushing + Receiving yards
Davante Adams has one foot out the door. Possibly by the time he enters a new facility, Antonio Pierce will learn how to use social media. But I digress. The point is, the Raiders are a mess. Without Davante Adams, you have Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker as Gardner Minshew’s best weapons. That sentence right there should be convincing enough.
Yes, they have a solid run game with Mattison and White but they’re facing a top-5 run defense by DVOA, in the Broncos. Denver is not a sexy pick by any means but they have looked impressive, outscoring opponents 36-16 in the last two weeks on the road. The offensive line was able to protect Bo Nix and avoid any sacks against the Jets defense, meanwhile, the defense sacked Aaron Rodgers a whopping seven times. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get a decent lead here, which brings us to our Williams prop.
Last week was by far his best week with 77 yards on the ground and a season-high 16 carries. He also has seen 12 targets in the previous three games – which bodes well here since the Raiders have allowed the 5th-most catches to opposing running backs. Overall, they have allowed the 7th-most production to his position and he should take advantage of that in Week 5.
Cardinals at 49ers -7
Jordan Mason Over 86.5 Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey being sidelined should have been a massive setback for the 49ers… then came Jordan Mason. We all thought his debut of 147 rush yards on 28 carries and a touchdown against the Jets was just a fluke. We were wrong. He followed that up with another 100-yard touchdown game against the Vikings. Then, he had his least productive game, and by least productive, I mean he had 77 yards on 19 carries against the Rams. Don’t worry though, he bounced back with a 123-yard game on 24 carries, a touchdown, and 37 receiving yards against the Patriots.
He couldn’t ask for a better matchup here, with the Cardinals allowing 2nd-most rushing attempts (28 per game) to opposing running backs. We just saw Brian Robinson Jr put up over 100 rush yards and a touchdown after both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 225 total yards and a touchdown. Plus, the 49ers are seven-point favorites here and are expected to take and keep a lead, which means they should lean on Mason early and often. On top of that, both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are back in the mix, and the Cardinals’ defense will have its hands full.
Saints (+5.5) vs. Chiefs
I’m fading the MVP frontrunner, and I’m not afraid to admit it. Mahomes enters this matchup with a QBR in the bottom half of the league, ranking just above Daniel Jones and three spots ahead of Bo Nix. His completion percentage is only 0.20% better than Will Levis, and he has six touchdowns to five interceptions. Before you get worked up, Mahomes himself has acknowledged he hasn’t played well –– it’s not just me.
Will these stats change? Likely, it’s three-time-Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about here. However, this is a spot where I’m comfortable fading him –– specifically because of his declining arsenal of weapons against a Saints defense that ranks No. 2 overall and No. 3 in pass DVOA. Mahomes was already missing Hollywood Brown, now both Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice. Kelce has had just one productive game, too. With only Xavier Worthy to worry about, opposing defenses can focus their efforts on Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. The Chiefs might still come out on top of the AFC once again at the end of the season, but they may face some harsh reality in Week 5 that hands them their first loss.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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