Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each different position and highlighting some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
The QB ownership is a bit more spread out this week, but we still have some heavy ownership on one QB in particular: Brock Purdy. His projected ownership is 17.74%, but it’s worth showing that the contest sims still find him considerably undervalued. His exposure rate in winning lineups was 34.60% in this set, giving him a positive edge of 16.86%. At his price and with a skinny target tree he makes for a terrific option in all formats. The other big positive edge in the contest sims comes from Jordan Love, who is getting a lot of steam based on a culling of his target tree due to injury. He shows a +12.63% edge, nearly double his projected ownership.
The other QBs that have positive edges are Jayden Daniels and Geno Smith. Both of these guys have nominal positive edges offered (6.51% and 3.92% respectively) and make for some of the higher upside options. The Player Range Of Outcomes model over at Paydirt have Daniels as one of the highest median QBs by a good amount largely in part to his rushing upside and strong game environments. Both can be paired with just a single receiving option, otherwise called a QB+1, which allows for more flexibility with secondary correlations.
The most violent negative edge offered at QB is Trevor Lawrence. His edge is -7.72% while he shows up in less than 1% of winning lineups. Overall, the Jaguars offense has been middling-to-bad this year, and while this matchup is strong it’s a wait and see situation for our models.
RB Edge Distributions
Above you’ll find the top RBs in positive edge offered based on this set of contest simulations. The RB with the largest positive edge offered is Jerome Ford at +22.58%. He projects for modest ownership in the 10-15% range but his exposure rate in winners is 33%, well over double his projected ownership. Ford is in one of the best matchups you can find up against WAS, who has been a consistently positive matchup for PPR points over expected.
Other positive edge offerings from this set are: De’Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker III, Josh Jacobs, and Trey Sermon. All of these RBs outside of Sermon have solid roles and are priced in the mid-tier which allows for us to build competitive lineups around them. Sermon is a late week trending player based on Jonathan Taylor missing the game and we should expect his ownership to surge. I do not think he will be a positive edge by Sunday, but he will likely be a valuable option in cash games where that upside doesn’t matter as much.
WR Edge Distributions
Above are the top positive edges for the WR position from this set of contest sims. Tutu Atwell has a demanding lead here with a projected ownership of 9% and a winning frame exposure of 27%, leading to a positive edge of 18%. He has been a consistent piece of the LAR passing attack with the loss of Nacua and Kupp and hasn’t seen quite enough of a price increase. Surprisingly he ends up with a considerable positive edge here even with Matthew Stafford not showing up as a positive edge at QB (no correlative influence).
Jauan Jennings, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers make up for the next batch of positive edges. These guys offer up 6-12% positive numbers and with the exception of Diontae Johnson look to be lower owned options that can provide a lot of relative value. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an especially alluring option with Geno Smith showing some neutral edge and the Seahawks being one of the most pass heavy teams in the league based on CPOE and DBOE metrics.
Last note on WRs: the contest sims like Dontayvion Wicks a lot and find him relatively undervalued, but you’ll notice that the above image doesn’t have Jayden Reed. You’ll want to go check out the full models for some context on him and the rest of the Packers receiving core!
TE Edge Distributions
Above are the top 5 options in positive edge offered at the TE position. It is a pretty gross cohort!
Zach Ertz shows up as the highest positive edge offered at +19.71%. He shows up in about a quarter of the winning lineups from the contest sims, which is significant, though he certainly gains correlative influence from Jayden Daniels showing up as the QB of many of those lineups. His projected ownership is too low even if his ceiling is probably 13 fantasy points.
The other options here are mostly just game stacking the CIN/BAL game and using Eric Saubert as a correlation with Brock Purdy. This is not only an intended function of the contest sims (correlation being huge for TEs) but a microcosm of the NFL landscape right now. TE is a low upside position outside of the main elite names who are inconsistent at best. Pairing Gesicki with Burrow or Likely with Lamar Jackson is going to give you that correlation you need while letting you focus more on harder choices elsewhere.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
There is a large emphasis on SF, GB, and WAS options in the contest sims this week along with some value plays from LAR to round things out. This makes a lot of sense based on the current set of ownership projections and lets you remove a bit of volatility from your lineups before you rotate in some relative value pieces. GB stacks should be especially popular, and it’s worth noting that if you are not stacking them there is going to be merit in avoiding them as one-off options. Starting builds with a SF QB+2 of Purdy/Deebo/Saubert or a GB QB+2 of Love/Wicks/Reed is a good base that allows you to then slot in some guys like Tutu Atwell and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to give you the upside you need to pass the field. Likewise, using a QB+1 with WAS or BAL pieces can give you a high upside mini-stack that allows you the flexibility to build strong secondary correlations across the rest of your positions.
This seems like a really good week to play smaller field GPPs that allow you to eat a lot of ownership at either your stack or your one offs since we have a lot of pivots in both spots.
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.