GPPs are not won by using all of the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup, and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” names that your Dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about — not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea — lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 5.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Top DFS Stacks
Game Stack: Cardinals at 49ers
Brock Purdy ($6,200) – Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300) – Trey McBride ($5,900)
Just like last week, I’m targeting the Cardinals game for our main slate stack, the team who allowed Jayden Daniels to post his second straight 25+ point game on DraftKings in Week 4. This week, I’ll also be targeting the opposing QB in Brock Purdy, who looks quite underpriced at just $6,200 in this matchup.
Purdy has played excellent football to start the season and ranks third in EPA among all QBs, and enters this game with a fully healthy complement of receivers. The 49ers quarterback didn’t need to do a whole lot last week against New England, who kept fumbling the ball, and then allowing Jordan Mason to rip off huge chunk gains, but may be asked to be a bigger part of the scoring this week against Arizona. Purdy sometimes gets talked about as a game manager but he has upside, and just two games ago completed 73% of his passes against the Rams for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns; a game where also posted 26.78 FPTS.
The Cardinals’ pass defense is just as weak as Los Angeles’ (29th in EPA per dropback) and has allowed a completion percentage of 78% or better to three of the first four QBs it has faced. Purdy himself threw for four touchdowns against this team late last season, and with the 49ers favored by a touchdown at home, projects to potentially match that performance in this spot.
If you have been playing season-long or daily fantasy this season, you’re likely sick of hearing about Brandon Aiyuk, who has been vastly outperformed by teammate, Jauan Jennings, thus far. Jennings may keep stealing some thunder, but with Deebo Samuel back, I expect the field to open up for Aiyuk in this spot, who won’t have to face a top-tier corner like he did last week in Christian Gonzalez. Aiyuk trounced the Cards for 148 yards on just six catches last year in Week 4, and the Cardinals look extremely gettable again as their top corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting is ranked 90th among all corners in the league in PFF’s grading system. As annoying as Aiyuk has been to start the season, sticking with him for one more week could pay off big in this spot.
Even though I see Purdy and the 49ers putting up a lot of points, and likely winning this game, I do think the Cardinals will be more competitive, thanks mainly to the return of Trey McBride. McBride had his best game of the season (6-67) in the Cardinals’ only win this year, against the Rams in Week 3, and destroyed this 49ers secondary for 10 receptions and 102 yards back in Week 15 of last season. After having issues connecting with his wideouts last week, against a very gettable Washington secondary, I do expect Kyler Murray to look McBride’s way more in this game as a way to both counteract the 49ers’ pass rush and provide some stability to an offense that managed just 17 first downs last week and ranks 15th in first downs per game.
Quarterback
Jordan Love ($6,500)
While he’s only played in two games, Jordan Love ranks first in points per game (2-game sample) among all quarterbacks in fantasy with six passing touchdowns in two starts. He may not keep the three-touchdown-per-game pace going all season but with the Rams on the schedule this week, he may actually push to improve on his seasonal average in Week 5.
Los Angeles has an injury-depleted secondary that is led by the past-his-prime Tre’Davious White, who ranks 54th on PFF among all corners this season. As a unit, the Rams rank 31st in EPA per dropback against and 29th in success rate per dropback. Love may have lost Christian Watson for a while, but the Packers’ depth at wide receiver is unparalleled, with Dontayvion Wicks even being a potential upgrade for Love, given his superior route-running ability. Either way, look for Matt LaFleur and Love to take apart this Rams secondary at some point in this game and lead Love to another massive fantasy total.
Running Back
High End: Chuba Hubbard ($6,100)
There have been few running backs better than Hubbard over the last two weeks. The Panthers starting back has averaged 5.6 yards per carry and has run for over 100+ yards in two straight games. He also reeled in all nine of his targets over that span while finding the end zone twice (once as a rusher and once as a receiver).
Despite this insanely hot stretch, his price this week remains at a paltry $6,100, thanks in large part to the narrative around Carolina being bad and the Chicago defense being some sort of impenetrable force. The Bears do have a solid defense, mind you, but they have now allowed five rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, which is almost as many as they allowed to the position in all of the 2023-24 season (7). Either way, this spot is not for overthinking. The Panthers offense is vastly improved with Andy Dalton under center and it should mean more opportunities for Hubbard, who is one of the best pure rushers in the league at the moment, and a great value for DFS at under $7,000.
Low End: Javonte Williams ($5,200)
Williams stepped up last week in a big way for the Broncos, posting 77 rush yards on 16 carries, for 4.8 yards per carry. It was much needed for Denver, whose rushing attack had been stagnant to that point. Williams is talented but has had issues recovering his burst since an ACL injury in 2022. This week, he’ll face a Raiders rush defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry (third-worst in the league) and has an offense that can’t rush the ball, and ranks 24th in first downs per game.
Williams projects to be on the field a lot in this spot, especially with Tyler Badie now sidelined. He’s been a slow starter thus far, but this may be the last week you can still buy low on Williams who looked far better last week and may be close to regaining his peak form.
Wide Receiver
High End: DK Metcalf ($7,000)
Metcalf had a big day against Detroit, but he’d likely be the first to tell you it could have been even bigger. He lost a fumble at one point and also got tackled on the one-yard line, which kept him from scoring for the third straight game in a row. Still, Metcalf put up 104 yards for the second straight week, and while his salary has climbed, there is no reason not to expect him to be more efficient with his touches against the Giants.
New York’s top outside corner Deonte Banks ranks just 52nd among all corners this year in PFF grading and the Giants may still be without both Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson (both questionable). Metcalf may not get 12 targets again but look for him to post some big plays against this thin secondary and make up for some of those missed opportunities from last week.
Low End: Jordan Whittington ($4,600)
The Packers-Rams game makes for a great target this week. It has a 48.5-point total and features two faster-paced teams with elite quarterbacks. With the Rams as underdogs, targeting one of their lower-priced receivers in this spot makes plenty of sense as there is a significant chance of Green Bay being up big at some point and Matthew Stafford dropping back well above expectation in this spot.
While Tutu Atwell ($4,900) has provided the big plays of late, I’m prone to side with rookie Jordan Whittington for DFS, who looks like he may be ready to fill in some of the Puka Nukau role, before he returns. Whittington is a solid receiver and looked far more comfortable in this offense last week, earning a 30% target share while playing 59 snaps. Even in a slower-paced game against the Bears, he still managed to see eight targets, last week, a number we’d gladly take at these prices; but there is more PPR upside lurking in this spot, making him the preferred target for me on the Rams.
Tight End
Erick All Jr. ($2,700)
I gave you one of my favorite pay-up options at tight end above in Trey McBride, so let’s go more value-oriented with our other play at this position. Erick All Jr. has seen his snap counts rise each the last two weeks and he also managed a season-high 14% target share in Week 4. The Bengals do like to rotate their tight ends, but All Jr. certainly seems in favor with the coaches right now and his competition for targets is Mike Gesicki, who has rarely been a consistent receiver to rely on for fantasy.
The Ravens have also been a funnel-to-the-tight-end defense this season, allowing the second most receptions to the position thus far, but have yet to allow to touchdown to an opposing tight end. That will change soon given the number of opportunities they are allowing and with a healthy Joe Burrow, who is currently 7th in EPA per play among QBs, don’t be shocked if All Jr. is the first one to find the end zone against Baltimore. At well under $3,000, he’s priced like a backup, but given his recent target share and the fact he’s caught four passes in three straight games, All projects as the kind of punt play that could pay off this week in GPPs –– in what projects to be a close, higher-scoring game.
Defense/Special Teams
Broncos DST ($2,900)
Even if the Broncos do end up being a popular choice this week there isn’t much of an argument for fading them as long as they aren’t overwhelming chalk. Denver has legitimately been one of the best defenses in the league to begin the season and come into this game rank third in EPA per play on defense, and second in sacks per game (4.0). This week they face off against one of the weakest offensive lines in the league in Las Vegas, who sit 27th in sacks allowed (3.5 per game).
Vegas also currently ranks dead last in EPA per rush on offense which means we should see Gardner Minshew drop back a ton in this game; which also means more opportunities for sacks, fumbles, and interceptions for this emerging unit. This game does have a close point spread (Denver -3.0) but the line has moved towards Denver significantly to start the week and with Vegas dealing with off-field issues with Davante Adams’ trade request, look for the Broncos’ defense to emerge with a big game, and potentially provide some huge returns for DFS lineups this week as well.
Be sure to set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
