In a shocking turn of events, a Wild Card series didn’t end in a sweep on Wednesday! The Mets and Brewers are set to decide who will move on to the National League Division Series in a pivotal Game 3. The Brewers had to go into their bullpen early in Game 2, so how will that come into play tonight? Let’s discuss some bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Mets moneyline +114
I’m showing my hand early! I think this game is essentially a coin flip but it’s not priced as such. As I write this, the Brewers are -135 on the moneyline. I think with this pitching matchup of Jose Quintana and Tobias Myers this should be closer to -110 on each side. So, with that in mind, I like the value on the Mets at +114.
Quintana has been pitching at an elite level over the past month and a half. It’s a huge difference from where he was earlier in the year when he ended the first half with a 4.13 ERA and a 4.44 FIP through the first half. He really turned his season around in the second half and in September allowed just two runs on 15 hits through 25 innings of work, good for a 0.72 ERA and a 2.05 FIP. Coincidently, the Brewers were the first and last team he faced this season and he pitched well in both games. Combined, he threw nine innings allowing four runs on 11 hits with 13 strikeouts.
What would worry me about the Brewers is how long Myers can go in this game. He hasn’t thrown more than four innings in three straight appearances, which include two starts and out of the bullpen. The Brewers had to go to the bullpen very early yesterday after Montas couldn’t get through four innings of work. Ideally, the Brew Crew would love to get some length out of Myers if possible, but I’m not sure they can rely on that. Even if that means Myers is left out a tad bit longer, I think that’s a plus for the Mets.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Jose Quintana over 4.5 strikeouts +130
Quintana is not a big strikeout pitcher. He strikeouts less than a batter per inning and ended the regular season with a 7.1 K/9. So taking the over on e strikeout prop can be a bit uneasy. However, he has shown that he can rack up the strikeouts and has done so against this Brewers lineup. As mentioned above, Quintana struck out 13 through nine innings of work. So, while his overall K/9 was at 7.1, against the Brewers specifically it was 9.0. The Brewers are a team that will provide strikeouts against a left-handed pitcher. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined 21.8% K%, but, it’s lower because of a few guys that don’t strikeout. Overall, five players have a K% of at least 24% against lefties. I think this is a sneaky bet to take the over on, because on the surface this looks like a tough number to clear. Give me the over for Quintana tonight.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Gary Sanchez alternate total bases over 1.5 +180
I’m going out on a limb here and taking an alternate total for Sanchez’s total bases. Currently, his total bases prop is at 0.5 at -135. You can roll with that, I’m ok with it. But I want to go a bit further. It may seem weird, but Sanchez is someone I’m worried about a lot in the Brewers lineup. Since last year, he’s HAMMERED sinkers from left-handed pitching. Sanchez has a massive .521 wOBA with a .552 ISO against that pitch. The power is there, so why not take a shot at his alternate prop of 1.5 bases, which you’re getting at +180.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
