UNLV has been all over the headlines in recent weeks, as starting quarterback Matthew Sluka bailed on the undefeated Rebels over NIL money. Hajj-Malik Williams took over signal calling duties, and UNLV didn’t skip a beat. The Rebels arguably looked better, rallying around the departure of their QB in a 59-14 stomping of Fresno State. The victory resulted in the 4-0 Rebels jumping into the AP Top-25. Now Syracuse comes to town on a short week for a huge game on Friday night. Let’s breakdown why I’m taking the points in this one.
Syracuse Orange at UNLV Rebels
Syracuse +7 (-115) 1-unit
Kyle McCord 310+ Passing Yards (-120) 1-unit
Friday (9pm ET)
As I mentioned, it’s been kinda of a whirlwind for UNLV lately. They have the quarterback controversy, then rallied around it to blowout a Fresno team that has not been very impressive this season. It was capped by the team jumping into the AP Top-25 this week. Now the Rebels host the Orange on a short week, in what sets up as a classic hangover spot.
UNLV is getting some hype to receive the Group of Five spot into the College Football Playoff, although Boise State is still favored there according to the odds. That could be a huge game in the Mountain West later in the season, but UNLV is going to have to remain unblemished leading up to it. I’m not so sure Syracuse doesn’t come to the desert on Friday night and knock the Rebels off outright.
Both teams’ path to victory here is clear. UNLV ranks 20th in the nation with 226 rushing yards per game, while the Syracuse defense is allowing 180 per game — which ranks 94th. But if the Orange can just limit explosive plays on the ground, especially from the quarterback, they should have a massive edge through the air. Syracuse has an above average pass defense, while UNLV is averaging the 11th fewest passing yards per game in the country. I don’t see UNLV getting those big plays through the air, which should help ‘Cuse be able to key in on the run as the focus of the gameplan.
On the flip side, the Orange have an elite passing attack, averaging 358 yards per game through the air — ranking third nationally. Ohio State transfer, Kyle McCord, has at least 27 completions for 339 yards in each game, including three games of 350-plus yards and four touchdowns. Match that up against a Rebels defense that ranks 73rd nationally in passing yards allowed, and just gave up 316 in a home game last week. McCord is in a strong spot to keep up his production and reach at least 310 yards through the air.
UNLV has been riding high and mighty all week. Look for the Rebels to be caught off guard by the strongest passing game they’ve faced yet. The Orange should be able to keep this one within a touchdown, and I would not at all be surprised to see them get this one outright.
This number is sitting 6.5 as I publish, but we’ve seen it get down low enough to be able to buy the half point to get +7 at -120 or better. I’ll take the full TD here for a little extra juice. I was able to play it at -115.
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