Oklahoma State enters Saturday on a two-game losing streak, putting the Cowboys in a desperation spot when they host West Virginia in Week 6. While the line has been dropping all week with money coming in on the Mountaineers, I think we’ve reached the point to buy-low on Mike Gundy and crew. Let’s breakdown this Big 12 clash.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys
OKST ML (-145) 1-unit
Saturday (4pm ET)
You aren’t going to find a better spot to buy-low on Oklahoma State than this. The Cowboys are still an outside contender in the Big 12, but they are going to have to string together some wins here. The good news for Mike Gundy is that their two toughest games on the schedule are behind them, not it’s time to look forward.
Oklahoma State wasn’t able to get anything going on offense two weeks ago at home against an elite Utah defense. It staged a late comeback, but the 22-19 loss was a bit misleading of a final score. The Cowboys had to role into a very difficult spot the following week, going on the road to Kansas State, after the Wildcats were embarrassed the following week at BYU. K-State rolled at home, winning 42-20.
It’s rock bottom for the Cowboys, but now they’re back home with a great opportunity to defeat West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 2-2 on the season, and do have the advantage of coming off the bye. But I expect OK State to be the far more hungry team. WVU got beatdown in Week 1 by a Penn State team that hasn’t been all that impressive otherwise. After a meaningless bounce-back win over Albany, WVU had Pitt on the ropes on the road the following week. Despite being up 10 points with just over four minutes to go, the Mountaineers couldn’t hold on, giving up consecutive late touchdowns to lose outright.
They responded, kind of, the following week, getting a 32-28 home victory over Kansas. That one required a game-winning touchdown on the final play of the game. Kansas has been really poor so far this season, getting terrible quarterback play, so WVU struggling to get there in a game it probably should’ve lost is concerning.
Both of these defenses have been really bad this season, and admittedly, Oklahoma State has been slightly worse. So buckle up for some points in this one, as the game total floats around 65. But I think the offense of the Cowboys is in the better spot to breakout here and pull this one off. West Virginia has been pretty average through the air thus far, and probably isn’t capable of ripping off some of the big plays we saw Kansas State pull, or even Arkansas in a game OKST nearly dropped in Week 2. The Cowboys still managed to hold a Utah offense to 22 points, which without Cam Rising, isn’t a bad comparison to WVU on offense.
The backbone of the Mountaineers offensively was supposed to be the run game this season. But averaging just 140 yards per game on the ground, ranking 79th nationally, has been a letdown. That said, I think we know what the West Virginia offense is at this point. Oklahoma State has been an even bigger letdown in the ground game.
After ripping off 1,732 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last season, Ollie Gordon has just 334 yards and four touchdowns this season. His yards per carry are down from 6.1 last year to just 3.8 this year. I can’t tell you what the issue has been, but this is a veteran offensive line, and a running back with the potential to be the best in the country. A get-right spot could be coming for Gordon, and facing a WVU defense that ranks 96th nationally could be the game to do it. Last season in Morgantown, Gordon had his best game of the season, carrying 29 times for 282 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-34 victory.
Hopefully the ground game gets going here for the Cowboys, but if it still struggles, they should absolutely be able to pass the ball in this spot. Oklahoma State has been a top-10 passing attack thus far, airing it out for just shy of 340 yards per game. West Virginia ranks 86th in passing yards allowed per game, and drops to one of the worst passing defense in the country in road games, giving up over 300 yards per game.
The betting splits on DK Nation disagree with me this week, as money continues to pile in on WVU and drop the number. But if Oklahoma State can’t figure it out in this spot, its season could be over. I trust Mike Gundy and company to get the win at home.
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