The NFL season is nearly one-quarter complete with the first four weeks already in the books. The grind continues as the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off on Thursday Night Football for the opening matchup in Week 5. Tampa Bay enters with a 3-1 record while Atlanta is 2-2 to start the year.
The Falcons enter as 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is currently +105 on the moneyline for the upset while the game total is set at 44 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Pick6 Plays
Both these teams have veteran quarterbacks in new places still eyeing success. Baker Mayfield has found his footing in Tampa Bay and is off to a strong start to the year after leading the Buccaneers to a playoff victory last season. Kirk Cousins has not fully hit his stride with his new team yet, but the Falcons still have their goals within reach.
This could be a notable matchup in the divisional race as these NFC South foes both hold playoff aspirations. With this game set to serve as a bit of a measuring stick matchup for each team, here are my top Pick6 picks for the Thursday Night showdown.
Rachaad White More Than 60.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards
It has been a strange start to the season for Rachaad White. In 2023, White tallied 1,539 yards from scrimmage and logged at least 68% of the offensive snaps in every game. Expectations were high for the 25-year-old as he entered his third NFL season. But through the opening four weeks, it has been Bucky Irving who has made more notable impressions.
Through the first four weeks of the season, White has recorded 115 rushing yards and 248 total yards from scrimmage. Irving has tallied 203 rushing yards and 237 yards from scrimmage to start his rookie year. Even still, White has recorded over 70% of offensive snaps in three of the first four weeks and has 13 more touches on the year.
It has been a bit of a slower start than expected but count on White to break out at some point. Irving will remain relevant in the offense but White is the more talented overall back who is due for the type of performance that will prove this. The Arizona State product tallied more than 60.5 yards from scrimmage in two of the four games even with Irving’s production. The best performances from White this year are still to come, so give him a chance to make this happen on Thursday night. The 60.5 combined rushing and receiving yards is too low of a bar for his talent, especially considering the 13.8 touches per game he is averaging.
Expect him to deliver in this matchup and record more than 60.5 total yards against the Falcons.
Drake London More Than 62.5 Receiving Yards
There has been plenty of hype surrounding Drake London since he was drafted with the eighth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The USC product has not quite lived up to expectations yet but has shown some signs of promise to start the year. London tallied 866 receiving yards as a rookie and 905 yards through the air last year. The hope was for him to take his game to another level with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback.
London has been successful in some areas already as his two receiving touchdowns already tie last year’s number. After a slow start in the opening week in which he had just 15 yards receiving, London eclipsed 50 yards the past three weeks and had more than 62.5 receiving yards the past two games.
Look for him to build off this level of production against the Buccaneers. There is still room for growth as London leads the team in targets with 31, but he has hauled in just 20 of these. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Buccaneers are allowing the 18th-most yards and 16th-most passing yards in the NFL. Expect London to continue growing his chemistry with Cousins and for him to eclipse 62.5 receiving yards for the third consecutive week.
Bijan Robinson Less Than 0.5 Rush & Receiving Touchdowns
Another prized draft pick who has not quite reached his lofty expectations is Bijan Robinson. The Texas product still managed to record 1,463 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, but fans were still frustrated with him not being utilized more. Perhaps the more frustrating realization through the opening four weeks of this year is that Robinson may be resigned to doing most of his damage in between the 20-yard lines and is not as much of a red-zone threat as you would hope.
Across the 17 games he played as a rookie, Robinson tallied just eight total touchdowns. Through the opening four games of this year, he has produced a touchdown just once in his 70 total touches. Even more concerning, Robinson has tallied just six rush attempts and recorded one reception in the red zone this year. In total, he has generated just six yards with these opportunities.
Tyler Allgeier continues to be in the hunt for opportunities and has eclipsed double-digit touches in two of the four games. It also should be noted that Robinson has been limited at practice this week due to a hamstring injury and is officially listed as questionable. There are also a variety of options such as Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney and Drake London on how to get the ball in the end zone. Ultimately, I am not buying into Robinson as a red-zone weapon until he proves he is capable of being one at the NFL level. Expect him to produce less than 0.5 rushing and receiving touchdowns in the Thursday Night matchup.
Tyler Allgeier More Than 34.5 Rushing Yards
Entering his third season in the NFL, Tyler Allgeier is more than just a handcuff to Robinson. The BYU product has tallied 166 rushing yards and 198 yards from scrimmage already this season, recording double-digit touches in a pair of games. He also eclipsed 1,100 yards from scrimmage in the 2022 season and 876 total yards last year.
There is no doubt that Robinson remains the featured running back. But there is room for opportunity for Allgeier as well. He recorded 38% of offensive snaps last week, which marks his highest total of the season. Allgeier recorded 10 touches for 80 yards in this opportunity. Robinson’s injury status will also be one to monitor, but with the limited participation in practice this week, the door may be open for Allgeier to receive additional opportunities anyway.
The 34.5 margin is too low based on the opportunity for Allgeier. He will see himself on the field for a handful of touches and this number may be more than usual due to the concerns with Robinson’s hamstring. Allgeier is talented enough to capitalize on these given chances and should be counted on to tally more than 35 yards on the ground this week.
Baker Mayfield More Than 22.5 Completions
Baker Mayfield has proven last year was not a fluke and is off to a strong start to the 2024 season with Tampa Bay. The former No. 1 overall pick has been surgical in his attack. Mayfield has completed 70.5% of his passes for 984 yards and thrown eight touchdowns with just two interceptions. He ranks sixth in the NFL in passing yards, second in touchdown passes and has recorded the fourth-best passer rating in the NFL.
Heading into this week, he will face a Falcons defense that has given up the 14th-most points and 19th-most yards through the opening four weeks. Tampa Bay leans heavily on its passing attack and will continue to rely on Mayfield. The Oklahoma product is coming off an effective performance last week against the Philadelphia Eagles in which he produced a league-best 2.08-second snap-to-release average per Pro Football Focus. This was effective in neutralizing the opposing pass rush, giving Mayfield simple passes and putting the team in a great position.
Expect the Buccaneers to continue leaning on this style and for Mayfield to have the ball in his hands plenty. He has had 23 or more completions in three of the four games thus far. The one time he did not reach this was in the victory over the Lions in which Mayfield was limited to just 19 pass attempts. Tampa Bay took a lead with 11:31 remaining in the first quarter and Detroit was unable to take it back at any point. The lack of completions had much more to do with clock control than Mayfield’s production.
As he faces off with the Falcons, expect Mayfield to be back to throwing the ball plenty. Tampa Bay seems to have found something in its short passing and quick-release play. Expect it to lean further into this and for Mayfield to record more than 22.5 completions without much trouble.
Kirk Cousins More Than 229.5 Passing Yards
The Falcons made a pair of splashes in the quarterback market this offseason, signing Kirk Cousins and drafting Michael Penix Jr. in the first round. Hoping that quarterback was the missing piece to its talented roster, Atlanta was widely regarded as a team expected to take a significant leap forward. Through the opening four weeks, it sits at 2-2 and you can find evidence for both optimism and pessimism regarding the team.
Cousins is at the heart of this question as he has had an uneasy level of play to start the year. Through the first four weeks, he has completed 64.7% of his passes for 864 yards while recording four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Even amid the struggles, Cousins has thrown for more than 230 yards in the past three games. He has averaged more than 230 passing yards per game every season over the past 10 years and has yet to play his best football in an Atlanta jersey. Expect the Thursday Night matchup to have some offense on both sides and for Cousins to inch closer to getting on the same page with his new teammates and playing his best football. This margin is too low based on the player we know him to be, so look for Cousins to throw for more than 230 yards for the fourth consecutive week.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (your “Pick Set”) of two or more players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing two or more players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must pick players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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