It’s the Buccaneers and Falcons on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 5. The Bucs are atop the NFC South and will be playing their first divisional game of the season. Both teams are coming off a win in Week 4, so what ways will I be betting this one on DraftKings Sportsbook? Let’s get to the bets.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 -110
This game is essentially a coin flip but I think the Buccaneers are the better team heading into Week 5. The Falcons are coming off a Week 4 win that didn’t have them scoring an offensive touchdown. The Saints essentially handed this win to the Falcons, who have been extremely inconsistent on their own. Kirk Cousins has been a disappointment and is essentially league average in a number of offensive categories. His adjusted completion percentage of 72.5% ranks him 24th out of 29 qualified quarterbacks. Trevor Lawrence is at the bottom at 64.3%. Cousins will also see similar pressure as he did in Week 4. In that game, he was under pressure on 39% of his drop backs and had a 53% completion rate and 6.5 YPA.
Meanwhile, we have a Buccaneers offense that is humming week after week. Baker Mayfield’s 81.5% adjusted completion rate is third in the league while his eight passing touchdowns rank second. They’re coming off a very impressive whopping of the Eagles, who have a plethora of their own issues to deal with. Mayfield should also be working with a clean pocket the majority of the time. You can add Matthew Judon on the list of disappointments for the Falcons. He does have two sacks but his five hurries are ranked near the bottom of the league. When Mayfield has a clean pocket, he has an 82% adjusted competition rate and 8.1 YPA. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, I think Mayfield will have a strong showing in Week 5.
Chris Godwin over 64.5 receiving yards -115
Slot receivers are the ones to target against the Falcons. This is where Godwin is playing on 63% of his snaps. He’ll be covered by CB Dee Alford, who hasn’t been much trouble for an receivers going against him. Alford has been targeted against 25 times and has allowed 21 catches for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Alford has been someone that allows a high catch rate throughout his career, as it currently sits at 71% since 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mayfield looks at Godwin’s way more with Mike Evans tangling with CB A.J. Terrell. To be fair, Terrell has allowed an 82% catch rate thus far, but this is quite unusual for him. I’m siding with the easier matchup with Godwin and taking him to go over his receiving yards.
Bijan Robinson under 14.5 rush attempts -120
Most don’t want to hear this, but Tyler Allgeier is cutting into Bijan Robinson’s workload once again. Robinson, who has been bothered by a hamstring injury, was able to log a full practice on Wednesday, paving the way for a full workload in Week 5. But, how much exactly is a full workload currently? Is it at least 15 carries? I’m not quite sure on that one just yet.
When you compare the two, Allgeier has been the more effecient back on the ground. He’s averaging over six yards per carry, an impressive 4.2 yards after contact and eight carries of over 10 yards. In Week 3, Robinson was on the field on 50 of the 61 offensive snaps for the Falcons while Allgeier was only 13 of 61. Last week, the gap was much closer with Robinson on 36 of 56 and Allgeiere on 21 of 56. I’m on the side of the Buccaneers winning this game, so Robinson rushing the ball could be scripted out as well. I simply think, at this rate, 15 carries seems to be a high number for Robinson.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
