The Bucs travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a divisional battle on Thursday Night Football. Here is how to bet on the game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buccaneers (+1.5) at Falcons o/u 43.5
Bucs Team Breakdown
After a bad home loss to the Broncos, the Bucs bounced back incredibly well with a convincing win over the Eagles. Outside of that loss to the Broncos, the Bucs’ offense has looked sharp this season. They are 9th in the NFL EPA/play. The emergence of Bucky Irving at running back to go alongside Rachaad White has added a new element to their offense. Among qualified quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield is 9th in EPA+CPOE composite, carrying over his solid play from last season.
Defensively, the Bucs have struggled, ranking 21st in EPA/play. They have particularly struggled against the run where they rank dead-last in the NFL in defensive rush EPA. The return of Vita Vea from injury definitely helped last week against the Eagles in both run-stopping and the pass rush. However, they still have some big holes in the middle of the field and in the flats, which is bad news against this Falcons offense.
Falcons Team Breakdown
The Falcons picked up a much-needed win over another one of their divisional rivals, the Saints, in Week 4. They aren’t excelling at any one particular thing, but are playing complementary football on every level. They have also played the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL by opponent DVOA. Kirk Cousins is building chemistry with his skill-position players. If you exclude Week 1 where he looked rusty, he is 14th in the NFL in EPA/pass.
The Falcons’ defense is playing the usual Raheem Morris bend-don’t-break defense. Their down-to-down numbers aren’t as good as other top defenses but they are 11th in the NFL in red zone defense and 14th in scoring defense. Last week, they limited the big plays that the Saints’ offense depended on all season, which helped them secure their win. The Falcons have also gotten fantastic work out of their kicker, Younghoe Koo, who went 4-4 including a 58-yard game-winner against the Saints.
Pick and Prediction
This should be a lower-scoring tight divisional game between two comparable teams. This game will come down to the fine margins on both sides, such as turnover margin and special teams play. The Falcons are tied for 8th in special teams DVOA while the Bucs are tied for 18th. This should also be a great home environment in primetime at Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the Falcons.
Kirk Cousins is improving every week as he gels with his weapons and the Falcons’ offense should continue to improve. This is also a good matchup for them against the Bucs where they can use their dangerous rushing attack to set up the passing game. They have faced a tough slate of defenses so far. Their offense could look better than what we’ve observed thus far against a favorable matchup this week. The Falcons also have guys in the secondary like AJ Terrell Jr. who can take away the Bucs’ dangerous wide receivers. The Falcons should use all of this to their advantage to pick up another key divisional win at home.
Best Bet: Falcons -1.5
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