There should be no need for me to pump you up about today’s jam-packed slate of playoff baseball. We have four consecutive eliminations games. What more could you want?
How about a couple bets to watch along with? Sounds good to me. Let’s dive into the action on the diamond.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Zach Eflin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+115)
I can see how some people might take the other side of this prop. The Orioles are in a must-win spot and, if Eflin struggles at all in the early going, Brandon Hyde will be more inclined than ever to have a quick hook.
Despite that reality, I don’t think that’s what’s going to go down on Wednesday. First and foremost, Eflin has been fantastic since being traded to Baltimore at the deadline, sporting a 2.30 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across his last seven starts. He’s also recorded at least 16 outs in eight of his nine appearances in an Orioles’ uniform. The other massive thing to consider when it comes to Eflin’s longevity? The fact that Hyde currently doesn’t trust his bullpen at all. Baltimore’s relievers combined for a 4.81 ERA following the All-Star break, which was the fourth-worst mark in MLB within that span. If the choice in the sixth inning is between Eflin or an RP, I truly believe the former is going back out there.
Let’s not overlook this matchup, as well. To be blunt, the Royals simply can not hit. While the re-addition of Vinnie Pasquantino is nice, the first baseman looked like a man who hadn’t taken a real at-bat in a month on Tuesday. Without Pasquantino in September, Kansas City ranked dead-last in the league in both ISO (.099) and wRC+ (61). This isn’t exactly Murderers’ Row and I’d expect Eflin to navigate this lineup with relative ease.
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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Mets ML (-102)
How far we’ve come in the span of 48 hours, right? Not too long ago, the Mets were three outs away from a do-or-die Game 162 to grab the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Now I have them sweeping the Brewers and waltzing into the Divisional Round. Calm down New York fans, I don’t believe in jinxes.
My logic specific to Wednesday is pretty straight-forward: Sean Manaea is a better pitcher than Frankie Montas. While Manaea did get roughed up in his final start of the regular season against this same Milwaukee team, that was the outlier performance of his second-half. In the 12 outings Manaea made from July 30 on, the veteran pitched to a sterling 3.09 ERA with a 3.35 FIP, a 0.85 WHIP and a 28.4% strikeout rate. Essentially, Manaea altered his arm angle to be more like Chris Sale and then became a poor man’s version of the Cy Young frontrunner. Not a terrible plan.
Meanwhile, Montas has not been able to find much consistency in 2024. He’s had moments since a mid-season trade to the Brewers, yet the RHP still possesses an ugly 5.43 ERA dating back to the All-Star break. That’s a span where Montas has also surrendered 1.63 opponent home runs per nine. Pat Murphy will surely have the 31-year-old on a short leash — and Milwaukee’s bullpen is fantastic — but thanks to the efforts of Luis Severino and Jose Butto, the Mets bullpen should be back in good shape. The Brewers really missed an opportunity in Game 1.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
