The four Wild Card series in the MLB postseason continue on Wednesday with Game 2 in each of the best-of-three series. The Tigers, Royals, Padres, and Mets will look to win and advance. The Astros, Orioles, Braves, and Brewers will try to avoid elimination and force a decisive Game 3 on Friday. The four-game slate gets underway at 2:32 p.m. ET.
The best and worst thing about the Wild Card round is that it can be over quickly. Each game is significant, and after a long season, it’s amazing how quickly it can be over.
With plenty of drama all day long, be sure to get your Game 2 lineups locked in before this afternoon start time. Let’s take a quick look at some of my top studs and values for Wednesday’s slate.
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PITCHER
Stud
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles ($8,500) – After Cole Ragans and the Royals bullpen dominated the Orioles in a five-hit shutout on Tuesday, Lugo has a chance to move his team on to the next round with a good game on Wednesday. Lugo was a huge offseason signing for the Royals and went 16-9 on the season with a 3.72 ERA and 3.25 FIP over his 206 2/3 innings with 181 strikeouts. He finished strong, allowing more than two earned runs just once in his last six starts with 35 strikeouts in 34 2/3 innings and a 2.08 ERA.
Before getting in just a couple of innings in his last start as a tune-up, Lugo had gone at least seven innings and earned at least 20 fantasy points in four of five outings down the stretch. Both these teams have been dealing with team-wide offensive slumps at very inopportune times, so I expect another low-scoring game on Wednesday, which sets up well for Lugo to continue his career year with some postseason success.
Value
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves ($8,000) – Like the Royals, the Padres spun a shutout in Game 1. They have to feel good about giving the ball to Musgrove for Game 2. The 31-year-old righty went 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 3.96 FIP in his 19 starts this season, finishing just one out short of exactly 100 innings. He had 101 strikeouts and closed the season on a very nice roll. In seven of his last 10 starts, he allowed one run or fewer and posted a 2.10 ERA, 2.47 FIP, and 10.02 K/9 rate over that stretch. He pitched at least six innings in six of his last seven starts and earned at least 29 fantasy points in four of those games.
Musgrove did not face the Braves this season but looked very sharp in a tough matchup against the Dodgers last week. He has playoff experience and a very high upside in what should be a great pitchers’ duel against Max Fried ($8,700) in the last game of the day.
INFIELD
Stud
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers ($5,700) – Lindor’s dramatic home run on Monday got the Mets into the playoffs and gave him 33 homers on the season. He hit .273 with a .363 wOBA and 29 stolen bases overall and carried the team over his last 40 games with a .333 batting average and .430 wOBA including 11 of those home runs and six stolen bases. He walked and scored in Game 1 but went 0-for-4 with four fantasy points. Lindor always brings an extremely high ceiling in a favorable matchup against Frankie Montas ($7,200), and he represents good value as the third-most expensive SS on the slate.
Stud
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers ($5,200) – Altuve is a proven playoff producer and will look to help the Astros erase their Game 1 struggle against Tarik Skubal. He had 20 homers and 22 stolen bases in the regular season. Thirteen of his 20 long balls came at home, where he had a .364 wOBA on the season. He had a .418 wOBA against lefties. He’ll go up against a lefty, at least, when he leads off since the Tigers will open with Tyler Holton ($6,800). Altuve has hit 27 career postseason home runs in 104 games, giving him a .357 wOBA in the playoffs. Getting him and Lindor at the top of their respective batting orders is a great way to lock down your middle infield spots on Wednesday.
Value
Matt Vierling, Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros ($3,900) – Vierling had 3B and OF eligibility, so he can slide into either spot depending on the rest of your roster build. He usually hits in the top four of the Tigers’ order and led off in Game 1, going 1-for-4 with an RBI and 7.0 fantasy points. Vierling had a big August before cooling off a little down the stretch, but he is a good play under $4,000 coming off a career-high 16 homers and a career-best .317 wOBA in 144 games played this past season.
Value
Donovan Solano, San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves ($2,400) – Solano is my favorite value infielder since he is such a consistent contributor. Even though he doesn’t bring elite power or speed, he hit a solid .286 with a .333 wOBA on the season and went 14-for-50 (.280) with two homers and a .351 wOBA over his last 16 games of the regular season. He had a hit on Tuesday night in Game 1 and will be an even better play in Game 2 since he’s facing a lefty. Against southpaws this season, Solano hit .302 with a .355 wOBA and 133 wRC+. The veteran is a great source of savings and still brings some solid upside from his salary under $2,500.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves ($5,600) – Tatis blasted a two-run shot in the first inning on Tuesday to set the tone and has been outstanding since returning from injury in early September. In the final month of the regular season, he smashes seven home runs in 22 games with a .366 wOBA and 140 wRC+. He also added three stolen bases in that span, giving him 11 steals and 21 homers in his 102 games. He and the Padres have a tough task against Fried, but he’s still the top pay-up play for me in the outfield.
Stud
Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets ($4,400) – Chourio had a great rookie season overall despite some streakiness. At just 20 years old, he hit a solid .275 with 21 homers and 22 stolen bases on his way to a .339 wOBA. He hit .310 with 12 home runs and a .387 wOBA in the second half of the season and hit safely in nine of his last 11 regular season games. In Game 1, Chourio went 2-for-4 and had 10 fantasy points in Milwaukee’s loss. He typically leads off against lefties like Sean Manaea ($8,200) and makes a great mid-range play with a very high ceiling in Wednesday night’s matchup.
Value
Wenceel Perez, Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros ($3,500) – Perez is one of several young Tigers who have made the jump to the MLB this season. He made his MLB debut this season and played 112 games, hitting .242 with nine homers and nine stolen bases. The 24-year-old switch-hitter has been much better against righties like Hunter Brown ($8,300) this season, and he finished the season strong, hitting safely in eight of his last 10 games with an at-bat in the regular season. He also had a pair of hits and 8.0 fantasy points in the first game of the series. He’s an affordable play with upside if you think the “Gritty Tigs” are ready to take the next step in their impressive second half of the season.
Value
Tyrone Taylor, New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers ($3,300) – Most of the cheap outfield bats are cheap because they’re slumping and don’t bring much upside. Taylor finished the season strong for the Mets, though, hitting .313 in his last 16 regular season games with five doubles, a home run, two stolen bases, and a .359 wOBA. He started in Game 1 against his former team and went 1-for-4 with a double and run scored for 7.0 fantasy points. He has both power and speed potential, which gives him good upside as the Mets look to continue their playoff run.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
