We have a matchup of AP Top-25 teams on Saturday at Kyle Field, as Texas A&M hosts Missouri. Interestingly, the higher ranked Tigers are catching points in this one, which can be a bit concerning at times. What are we missing here? But Mizzou is a very short dog in this one, likely due to the Aggies having one of the better home fields in college football. I’ll play on the underdog in this one, as we’ll breakdown below.
Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Missouri +2.5 (-110) 1-unit
Saturday (12pm ET)
Missouri is a bit of a mystery team in the early going. The Tigers are ranked in the AP Top-10 has a lot to do with the team they were expected to be this season, but they still haven’t done anything to show us that they can’t be really good. Mizzou beat Murray State 51-0 and Buffalo 38-0 in their first two games, looking the part. Narrow home wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt are results that are concerning to some, but both of those teams might be significantly better than we thought — BC spent time in the AP Top-25, and Vandy opened the season with a win over Virginia Tech.
After backing Texas A&M against Notre Dame and losing, I’ve faded the Aggies a couple of times and gotten mixed results. The win at Florida was impressive, but probably speaks more to how inept the Gators are this season. A&M is 0-3 ATS in home and neutral games, failing to cover at home in the loss to ND and a lackluster six-point win over Bowling Green. The neutral game was last week against Arkansas in Dallas, and the Aggies got the win, but we covered with the Hogs +6 if you read my article.
Marcel Reed is clearly the right call at quarterback for the Aggies, but he also is going to be facing the best defense he’s seen in his young freshman season. Missouri ranks top-20 in the nation in both passing and rushing yards allowed per game this season. Not what you want to see for a Texas A&M offense that ranks in the bottom-20 in the country in passing yards per game.
The Tigers have been terrific on the ground, but some of that has to do with quality of opponent early in the season. Nonetheless, A&M has been pretty solid defending the rush too, ranking 22nd in the nation. I think Missouri will be able to run the ball some, but they will be going up against a difficult matchup in that aspect.
What I expect to be the major difference in this game is the Tigers making big plays through the air. Brady Cook, the senior quarterback, was tremendous for Missouri last season, leading the team to a Bowl win over Ohio State. Cook has elite options to air it out to, including projected first-round NFL Draft selection Luther Burden III, who already has four touchdowns on the season. Senior Theo Wease Jr. is also having a tremendous season, leading the team with 26 receptions for 287 yards.
Texas A&M ranks just 81st in the country in passing yards allowed this season, surrendering 234 yards per game. Give me the veteran passing attack of Missouri to make some big plays and steal this game on the road, but we’ll gladly take a couple of points.
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