The Buccaneers take on their NFC South rivals in Atlanta to start Week 5 on Thursday Night Football. As 1.5-point underdogs, Tampa Bay will need its star wide receiver duo of Chris Godwin ($6,800) and Mike Evans ($7,100) to perform against the Falcons.
Although quarterback Baker Mayfield ($6,600) is playing well, he’s thrown the ball deep much less this season. Tampa Bay has the 17th-most pass attempts of 20+ yards or more compared to the seventh-most last year. That trend has directly benefited slot specialist Godwin, who has the 6th-most DK fantasy points of any wide receiver.
While Evans remains a major factor on offense, Godwin has been the most-targeted (34) and most productive Buccaneer. Both wideouts have scored three touchdowns while accounting for just under 82% of Tampa Bay’s red zone target percentage.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles would love to run the ball, but that’s a tall order against Atlanta’s imposing defensive line. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Falcons are giving up an EPA per carry of 0.03, the 8th-best in football. If Rachaad White ($5,900) and Bucky Irving ($5,400) are unable to get anything going on the ground, Mayfield will be forced to throw the ball often.
Both members of Tampa Bay’s pass-catching tandem have value for bettors on Thursday. However, an Evans anytime touchdown at +115 isn’t as enticing as Godwin at +155. Since the two command such a large chunk of the Tampa Bay offense, it only makes sense to ride with whoever has the better odds. Godwin’s team-leading target total and success in this matchup (9 touchdowns in 13 career games vs. ATL) make him the most appealing option.
The Play: Chris Godwin anytime touchdown at +155
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