Week 5. We now have a decent sample size of four weeks, which will fool us into thinking we are now wise. But I have no doubt that the Universe is going to give us the finger and scream into our faces, SURPRISE!!! This ain’t no serene “It’s a Small World” ride. In order to thrive, we must sharpen our mental knives and cut through the lies, using our minds to hone in on the guys who will rise, lifting us up to the ultimate prize. Like an agent in MI5, we must strategize and improvise to unearth the gems that lie in disguise. Then we shall arrive at heavenly bliss, like taking a bite into a piping hot breast from Popeye’s. If a bink does not materialize, I bow my head in shame and apologize. Oh, before I advise, let me remind you that there are four teams on bye.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has five games with an O/U of at least 45: BAL/CIN (50.5), BUF/HOU (47.5), IND/JAX (46.5), ARI/SF (49) and GB/LAR (48). There are two games with a total of 40 or below: MIA/NE (35.5) and LV/DEN (36.5).
There is no double-digit spread favorite. There are six games within a field goal: BAL -3 CIN, BUF -1 HOU, JAX -2.5 IND, NE -1 MIA, DEN -2.5 LV, and GB -3 LAR. There are three home dogs: CIN, HOU, and LAR.
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Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals ($7,500) – Not much analysis is needed for this one. This game has the highest total on the slate and Jackson provides one of the best floor/ceiling combos on the slate. Through four games, Jackson is completing 66.7% of his passes while throwing for 858 yards and five touchdowns with only one interception. He’s also rushed 41 times for 308 yards and two touchdowns. He is intimately familiar with the Bengals and, in two games against Cincinnati last season, he threw for two touchdowns while rushing for 54 yards in both games. Lamar has a low of 17.38 FPTS on the season with the other three games over 24 FPTS. His high on the season is 29.12 FPTS but in his career, Lamar has exceeded 30 FPTS 18 times with three over 40. His career high is 48.6 FPTS.
Other Options – Jayden Daniels ($6,800), Jordan Love ($6,500)
Value
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals ($6,200) – This game has the second-highest total on the slate. Purdy is going to have success for sure. He has the third-highest Total EPA at the quarterback position. It’s just a matter if he throws the touchdowns or if the 49ers run them in. The Cardinals have had the worst pass defense so far, as they allow the highest success rate and pressure the quarterback at the second-lowest rate. Purdy has faced the Cardinals three times in his career. He only went 15-of-20 for 178 yards in the first one but he threw three touchdowns. For their second meeting, he went 20-of-21 for 283 yards and one touchdown. In the most recent contest, he went 16-of-25 for 242 yards and four touchdowns. In all of those games, the 49ers won handily, and the 49ers are the biggest favorite on the slate at 7.5, making the range of outcomes wider than desired. That said, what if the Cardinals can put up points? Oh, baby.
Other Options – Joe Flacco ($5,500) if he starts
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Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals ($7,800) – The Ravens are going to score points in this one. Will it be Lamar? Or will it be King Henry? Why not both?! Over the last two games, Henry has carried 25 and 24 times for 151 and 199 yards with three total touchdowns. He’s primed for another big game, as the Ravens are 2.5 road favorites and the Bengals rush defense has allowed the third-highest success rate this season. Ruh roh.
Other Options – Kyren Williams ($7,600), Jordan Mason ($7,400), James Cook ($7,000), Kenneth Walker III ($6,800), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,600), Josh Jacobs ($6,400)
Value
Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders ($5,800) – Over the last two weeks, Ford has garnered 79% and 78% of the snaps at running back. That hasn’t meant much, though, as it translated to 10 carries for 37 yards and 10 carries for 58 yards. Still, this matchup is a good one, as the Commanders have allowed the fifth-highest success rate on the ground and a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. But the main allure of Ford is his prowess in the passing game. He received four and seven targets over the last two weeks and has 20 total on the season, 15 more than the next guy on the depth chart. With how Jayden Daniels is playing, there’s a chance that Cleveland will have to be aggressive chasing points through the air.
Other Options – Trey Sermon ($5,700) if he starts, D’Andre Swift ($5,700)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Nico Collins, Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,700) – This game should be a tight, competitive affair. The spread is only one point in favor of the Bills and the total is 47.5. I do have some questions about the total, though, as both defenses are more susceptible on the ground, which could bleed the clock and limit the number of possessions. That said, the Texans will throw some, and when they do, Collins is going to see many of those passes. He is second in the league with 43 targets and he has the highest Rec EPA against zone defense, which happens to be what Buffalo utilizes 81.3% of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Collins has scored double-digit FPTS in every game this season with two over 30.
Other Options – Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500), Malik Nabers ($7,300) if he plays, DK Metcalf ($7,100), Deebo Samuel ($6,800), Jayden Reed ($6,500), Zay Flowers ($6,400), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300), Diontae Johnson ($6,100)
Value
Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers ($4,600) – This game has a healthy total of 48 and the Packers are implied to score 25.75 points, the third-highest on the weekend. Jordan Love is back under center and the Rams defense is one of the most porous, so the Rams will likely have to be aggressive and chase points. Whittington received praise during the offseason but he only played two snaps in the opener. With the injuries, the snap rate increased to 50% and 38%, but exploded to 97% in Week 4. He led the Rams with eight targets and received a red-zone look. Whittington is slower than Tutu Atwell, but has more size and runs most of his routes closer to the line of scrimmage.
Other Options – Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,000) if Flacco starts, Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,900), Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($5,800), Christian Kirk ($5,700), Wandale Robinson ($5,600), Josh Downs ($5,100) if Flacco starts, Dontayvion Wicks ($5,000), Tutu Atwell ($4,900)
Tight End
Stud
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers ($4,300) – The top of the tight end pool has so many question marks that I can’t justify paying those prices. So, Kmet it is. A ringing endorsement! The good: dominating snaps at the tight end position for Chicago, received 11 targets and three redzone looks in Week 3 and Carolina has been very generous to the position, allowing 21 receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns. The bad: 1, 5 and 3 targets in the other three games.
Value
Erick All Jr., Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens ($2,700) – This game has the highest total at 50.5, so points will likely be scored. The Ravens rush defense is one of the better units in the league, so the path of least resistance is through the air for Cincinnati. All Jr. is a rookie, selected in the fourth round of the draft. It usually takes some time for rookie tight ends, but All Jr. played in 24%, 52%, and 34% of the snaps through three weeks. In Week 4, he led the position with 60% of the snaps and has received at least four targets in each of the last three contests. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points on average to tight ends this season.
Other Options – Colby Parkinson ($3,700), Tucker Kraft ($3,500)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Seahawks D/ST vs. New York Giants ($3,500) – The Giants have to travel to Seattle and are 6-point underdogs. The Seahawks defense is ninth in pressure rate, sixth in sack rate, and seventh in passing success rate. New York has allowed the 11th-highest pressure rate. Daniel Jones has thrown three interceptions and been sacked nine times. The Seahawks’ defense has two interceptions, a fumble recovery, a safety, and 14 sacks on the season.
Other Options – Bears D/ST ($3,600)
Value
Broncos D/ST vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($2,900) – The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. The unit is fifth in pass success rate while being sixth in quarterback pressure rate. The rush defense has allowed the lowest success rate. On the season, the unit has racked up two interceptions, three fumbles, two safeties, and 16 sacks. The unit has scored double-digit FPTS in three of four games. Only the Minnesota D/ST can make the same claim.
Other Options – Patriots D/ST ($2,900), Colts D/ST ($2,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
