The Falcons are 2-2 but 1-2 at home to start the season. One of those games was against the defending back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs, though. Atlanta just dispatched the New Orleans Saints and, if it can knock off the division-leading Buccaneers on Thursday night, then the throne that Tampa Bay currently sits on will morph into a bunk bed.
The Buccaneers came out of the gates like a greyhound chasing a mechanical rabbit, but stumbled at home in Week 3 to the Denver Broncos. That loss may not be as bad as first thought because the Broncos boast one of the best defenses in the league. Tampa Bay did bounce back in Week 4, though, with an impressive 33-16 thrashing of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Both rushing attacks haven’t been great, as the Falcons are 20th in success rate while the Buccaneers are 26th. That makes things somewhat interesting because both defenses have not been good defending the run. Atlanta has been the fourth-most generous in rushing success rate while Tampa Bay is right behind in sixth.
The big advantage that Tampa Bay has is in the pass game, as it is third in success rate while Atlanta is still trying to find its groove, posting the 19th-best passing success rate. Both pass defenses have been generous. Tampa Bay has allowed the seventh-highest success rate while Atlanta is two spots below.
The number that sticks out, though, is that Atlanta is dead-last in quarterback pressure rate. That does not bode well for Atlanta because Baker Mayfield has the 10th-best Total EPA when not pressured, completing 73.3% of his passes for 786 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions.
DK Sportsbook has the Falcons as favorites at home by only 1.5 points.
As for Monday’s injury report, Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (knee/calf) and WR Jalen McMillan (hamstring) did not participate. For Atlanta, RB Bijan Robinson (hamstring) and WR Ray-Ray McCloud (ankle) were limited participants. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
If Robinson is out, then the entire slate changes because Tyler Allgeier is only $4,800 and would essentially be a free square.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB @ ATL)
Captain’s Picks
Cade Otton ($6,000 CP): Otton is not going to score the most raw points. But at his price, he allows the rest of the roster to be stacked. In addition, there’s a good chance that he has a decent game while providing a sprinkle of upside. After garnering only two targets in each of the first two weeks, Otton has received eight and nine targets. He will never take one to the house and the yardage totals of 52 and 47 aren’t anything to text mom about, but 10.7 and 11.2 FPTS ain’t bad for the price. He has also received a red-zone look in each of the last three games, so if he scores a touchdown, Yahtzee!
UTIL Plays
Chris Godwin ($10,000): Godwin has been a metronome this season, garnering eight, eight, nine and nine targets. He leads the team with 34 targets on the season and has four red-zone looks. Godwin has put up double-digit FPTS in every game with two over 20. Mike Evans is also dealing with knee and calf issues, so Godwin could see more targets if Evans isn’t able to suit up.
Drake London ($8,800): After putting up 3.5 FPTS in the opener, London has gone for 17.4, 18.7 and 12.4 FPTS. That’s decent but not Tony the Tiger greeeeaaaatttt! Kirk Cousins has been showing Darnell Mooney plenty of love but I think it’s only a matter of time before this offense and Cousins start to click. London has seen the targets increase from seven to nine to 12. He also has six red-zone looks.
Bucky Irving ($6,400): This backfield is still Rachaad White’s, but the snap count spread has closed. It was 70/30 for the first three games, but it went down to 60/40 in Week 4. White is the better pass catcher, but he only out-targeted Irving, 3-2, last week. The main thing for me is that Irving received five red-zone opportunities last week while White had a bagel. I’m not sure where the ownership will flow to between White and Irving. I guess since White is $400 more expensive and Irving has been getting buzz that Irving will be higher-rostered, but the other part of my brain thinks that many will go with White for the higher snap count and perceived receiving prowess.
Fades
Bijan Robinson ($9,800): Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury and ceded some work to Allgeier in Week 4. The snap count split was 60/40 after being 80/20 the first three weeks. Robinson has scored double-digit FPTS every game but the likelihood of a “had-to-have-it” game are muted, both by the injury and presence of Allgeier.
THE OUTCOME
I like this to be a high-scoring affair, with Baker being a touchdown-maker and Cousins responding admirably. The inability of Atlanta to get pressure on the quarterback is extremely troubling for me. Therefore, I like Tampa Bay to give the Heisman to Atlanta and remain on the NFC South throne.
Final Score: Buccaneers 37, Falcons 24
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB @ ATL)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
