Update: Doncic is in for the Mavericks, who are now just 1-point underdogs in this game. I’ll take Dallas +1 as the ATS pick. The total has moved to 234 and I still like the under on this one.
Two of the top teams in the Western Conference will face off Sunday evening when the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-9) head South to take on the Dallas Mavericks (21-15). The Timberwolves have the best record in the conference and are coming off a win over the Rockets, while the Mavericks are on a two-game winning streak. This is the third meeting between these teams this season, with Minnesota winning the first two games.
It’s a loaded injury report for Dallas. Luka Doncic is questionable with an ankle injury, and that’s the biggest status to monitor. Joining him as questionable are Grant Williams, Markieff Morris and Richaun Holmes. Dereck Lively is doubtful, while Maxi Kleber and Dante Exum are out.
The Timberwolves are 2.5-point favorites in this contest at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total coming in at 231.5. Minnesota is -142 on the moneyline while Dallas is +120.
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks +2.5
Minnesota is just 8-10 ATS as the road team this season and the Timberwolves have generally struggled away from home. The Mavericks haven’t been particularly stellar as the home team though, sporting a 8-9 ATS mark. The Timberwolves covered this line in both previous meetings, although Kyrie Irving didn’t feature in either contest and Doncic missed the second game.
The Timberwolves have covered the spread in just one of their last six games, while the Mavericks have covered in four of their last six. Dallas is 1-3 ATS as a home underdog, but I like the Mavs to come out on top tonight with Irving being the difference in this matchup.
Over/Under: Under 231.5
The Timberwolves are the best defensive team in the league this season, while Dallas’ defense has remained slightly below the league average across all games. Minnesota is 18-15-1 on overs this year, while Dallas is 21-14-1. However, both matchups between these teams this season have gone under this number. I like the under once again in what should be a tight, relatively low-scoring contest.