Through four games, Jahmyr Gibbs only has two touchdowns—one on the ground, and one through the air on this season’s contender for top play through four weeks: the Week 3 hook-and-ladder.
And yet, on DraftKings Sportsbook tonight, his Anytime TD price is -115. You’d think Gibbs was scoring like Kyren Williams out there with this sort of market protection built into the odds. So, what gives?
Gibbs is as explosive as they come, and not just in reputation and spectacle. Statistically, his rushes are some of the most valuable in the league. Of rushers with at least 40 carries this season, Gibbs ranks fourth in the league in both expected team points added (5.8) and expected team points added per rush (0.14). He’s not only been valuable in aggregate; he’s been efficient in his explosiveness.
Oh, and of the top five rushers who fit the above parameters, Gibbs is the only one who hasn’t fumbled the ball.
Splitting time with Montgomery is a bummer. It always will be. But we drafted Gibbs where we did—we pay for him in DFS at the price tag with which he’s slapped, we bet on him as we do, etc.—because we know the Lions are going to give him the ball when they believe he can be most explosive and efficient with it.
To me, tonight’s game feels like it could be an engines-firing-on-all-cylinders effort from the home team in Motor City. Seattle’s defense has outperformed its expectations so far, and primetime games always seem to be fulcrums or snoozefests. I’m thinking the Lions hang a number tonight. A Gibbs TD very well could be at the center of that endeavor.
Even still, it’s hard to advocate for his Anytime TD price of -115 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. I actually would prefer to take the bigger risk at +500 for Gibbs to score 2+ TDs in this game. Half a unit or so. A tipple or two. You get it.
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