Week 4 of the NFL season will conclude with a Monday Night doubleheader. This will mark the second of four Monday Nights in which two games will take place this season.
In the first matchup, the Miami Dolphins will take on the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Titans are +120 underdogs on the moneyline and the over/under sits at 37 points for the matchup. The Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks will face off in the latter of the two matchups.
With the focus of this article staying on the Dolphins and Titans, here are a few player prop picks I like in the early slate.
Tyreek Hill Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
At the top of the list of players impacted by Tua Tagovailoa’s injury sits Tyreek Hill. After leading the NFL in receiving yards with 1,799 last season, he has taken a significant step back. Hill tallied 130 receiving yards in the opening game, but has recorded just six receptions for 64 yards since this point.
As a team, the Dolphins have struggled to produce offensively. They rank 32nd in the NFL in scoring at just 11.0 points per game thus far. Miami made a quarterback change leading into this week as they will be starting recently added Tyler Huntley instead of Skylar Thompson. In the past two games, the Dolphins have produced an average of 176 yards per game through the air, and will hope Huntley can improve this.
Regardless of who is throwing the football, expect there to be a conscious effort to get the ball in Hill’s hands. The eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver is the most dangerous weapon on the roster and debatably across the league. As the Dolphins look to improve their offensive production, look for them to get creative in putting the ball in his hands. Expect an uptick in the short passing and the screen game and for Hill to eclipse 4.5 catches in this matchup.
Tyler Huntley Over 202.5 Pass & Rush Yards (-115 odds)
With Skylar Thompson already struggling and out due to a chest injury, the Dolphins were forced to explore other options at the quarterback position. They had a stroke of luck being able to sign Tyler “Snoop” Huntley off the Ravens practice squad.
The bar is low for what successful quarterback play will look like and Huntley is capable of eclipsing this. During the two games Thompson played with the Dolphins, he completed 21 of his 33 passes for 187 yards and did not produce a touchdown. Huntley has spent the past four seasons with the Ravens where he has received action in 20 games and served as the starter in nine of these. In his lone start last year, Huntley completed 15 of his 28 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown while adding 40 rushing yards on the ground. He also miraculously managed to make a Pro Bowl the year prior although he started just four games.
He has areas of concern in his game, but Tyler Huntley is a much better option at quarterback than what is typically available in this type of situation. Miami is loaded with weapons he can utilize and he will be able to rely on big-play threats to get the job done. Expect Mike McDaniel to have the 26-year-old ready to play and for Huntley to deliver. His dual-threat ability will also be a weapon so look towards the combined passing and rushing yards. Don’t be surprised if the Dolphins utltize his legs and put him in some roll-out or option situations. If Miami wants to remain in the playoff hunt they will need to produce and win games like this one. Look for Huntley to step up with the help of the skill position players around him and ultimately produce over 202.5 yards in the matchup.
De’Von Achane Over 92.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-115 odds)
One player that has not been held back from the loss of Tagovailoa has been De’Von Achane. The second-year running back has recorded 323 yards from scrimmage already this year and is on pace to blow past the 997 yards from scrimmage he tallied last year. Achane has had at least 16 touches in all three games and eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage twice already.
Heading into this matchup, things are trending in the direction of Raheem Mostert missing his third straight game. Last year’s NFL rushing touchdown leader is battling a chest injury. This only opens the door for more potential opportunity for Achane.
The Texas A&M product is a weapon in both the rushing and receiving game. Especially with the quarterback change, Achane will be even more important as the Dolphins look to get Huntley going early. Expect Miami to utilize the short pass and screen game, giving Achane a chance to make plays. He also is the leading rusher and will have the ball in his hands plenty. Look for Achane to continue his level of production and eclipse 92.5 yards from scrimmage for the third time in four weeks.
De’Von Achane to record 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+160 odds)
In route to Achane’s strong performance, look for him to eclipse 25 rushing yards in each half. While his overall level of production has been strong, Achane has not broken out as a runner yet this season.
The 22-year-old tallied just 24 rushing yards on 2.4 yards per attempt in the opening week and 30 rushing yards on 2.7 yards per attempt last week. While Achane did rush for 96 yards in between this, it is not close to the 7.3 yards per rush attempt he tallied last year. This is a lofty number, but the actual average for what Achane can produce likely falls between this number and what he has produced so far this year.
Expect Miami to show a commitment to the running game and for Achane to get plenty of opportunities. He is capable of breaking free for a 25+ yard gain on any given carry and will be given the necessary opportunities in both halves. Getting +160 odds is great value for this and this prop will keep you engaged in both halves of football.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
