Week 4 of the NFL season winds down with another Monday night doubleheader. The early game in Miami features a Dolphins team that’ll be playing its fourth quarterback of the young season against a Titans squad still in search of their first victory. Might look like an ugly one on the surface, but given the price on DraftKings Sportsbook, I think we have value on a side.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins ML (-142)
1.5-units
This is a matchup of two teams playing pretty uninspiring football at the moment. The Titans have taken money every week as the season goes on, but remain 0-3 SU and ATS. So could this finally be the spot to back them? Not so fast.
Tennessee has been far from efficient on offense, ranking 28th in passing yards and 22nd in rushing yards. When you can’t move the ball, you need to be winning the field position battle by forcing turnovers. Yet, the Titans are dead last in the NFL, with just one forced turnover this season. Couple that with the fact that Will Levis and the offense aren’t taking care of the ball, with an NFL-high eight giveaways, and you have a massive problem. That’s a turnover differential of -2.3 per game.
Miami has been pretty steady thus far with an even turnover margin. While the Dolphins haven’t forced many turnovers (three), they also haven’t been giving it away (three). This team has gotten zero consistency so far this season. Yes, the Dolphins had the comeback victory over the Jaguars in Week 1, but that’s aged pretty poorly with the Jags now 0-4.
Since then, Miami got smoked by the Bills in the game Tua Tagovailoa went down, and then beat down again in Seattle. But remember, Skylar Thompson was hurt in that one, and Miami had to make an in-game quarterback switch for the second consecutive week. Now it’s Tyler Huntley that gets the call, and gives the Dolphins a good chance for some stability for the first time since Week 1.
Huntley made nine starts as a member of the Ravens, dating back to 2021. Not only will the journeyman will bring some experience under center, but these will be the most explosive skill position players he’s ever played with. In his spot starts in place of Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, Huntley was often operating with very little around him. Huntley is a capable quarterback, and should be able to utilize Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle better than Thompson or Tim Boyle was able to.
I expect Huntley to get this offense back on track, while Levis and the Titans continue to make sloppy mistakes. Huntley is being priced as another desperation option here for the Dolphins, which I feel it a little disrespectful. I’ll take my chances with a superior Miami team at home.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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