Honestly, I dont know if we’ll see a playoff game that’ll match what we saw between the Mets and Braves on Monday. Nonetheless, I’ll give you some of my favorite MLB Wild Card Bets for the first games of their series. Of course, you can find these MLB bets on DraftKings Sportsbook, so let’s get into it.
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DraftKings Playoff Special
The Pick: Total home runs under 103.5 -110
As it stands right now, this is my favorite MLB bet on the board. It’s not for a particular game but rather the entire playoff series. I found this market really interesting because when you start to break it down, getting -110 on the under really seems like a strong play.
The best way to break this down is to see what the maximum number of playoff games that could be play. That number is 53. We’re not going to see 53 games. That would mean EVERY series would go the distance and that won’t happen. But, if that WOULD happen, that would mean we would need almost two home runs per game, on average, for the over to hit. It breaks down to about 1.9 home runs per game for the over to hit at 104.
Now, we start taking games away, because every series won’t go the distance. I’ve seen markets set for the total number of playoff games to take place at 42.5. If that’s the case, now we need 2.5 home runs per game for the over to it. That’s a lot of home runs for every game, especially when you consider you’re mostly getting the cream of the crop starting. Simply put, this is too many home runs. Before any game throws their first pitch, this is the first bet I’m locking in. If you’re interested in take this bet, make sure to do so before the first game kicks off, which is currently scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET.
To access this bet and every bet I’m talking about, you can click on the text next to “The Pick:” above. You can also find it on DraftKings Sportsbook by going to MLB – Playoff Specials – October Specials.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
The Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 bases +110
It’s going to be a tough matchup for the Royals in Game 1 against Corbin Burnes. But, at least for Witt Jr, he has good numbers against what Burnes throws. His cut fastball is his primary pitch, throwing it over 51% of the time. Witt has a .413 wOBA against that pitch, which is one of the highest on the team. Witt has been the only real consistent hitter on the Royals over the past month as well. During that span, he’s posted a .415 wOBA with a .277 ISO and only a 10.7 K%.
It’s also worth noting that Burnes has a .320 wOBA and a 4.86 against righties at home this season. While these aren’t the worst numbers you’ll see for a pitcher, they were the worst amongst his splits on the road and at home. I think Witt can sneak in at least two bases despite the bad matchup and cash this bet at +110.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
The Pick: Game total under 2.5 runs through first five innings +124
Personally, this is the lowest game total through the first five innings I’ve played this season. But, with Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez taking the mound, I’m comfortable with it. We have two pitchers who are throwing some of their best baseball all season long currently, and I’m not expecting much offense through the first half of the game.
Both pitchers have been nearly untouchable in the month of September. Valdez through 26 innings allowing just five runs on 20 hits with 23 strikeouts. Skubal went 23.2 innings and allowed four runs on 18 hits with 27 strikeouts. Now, both pitchers are on a collision course in Houston this afternoon. Skubal is at his best the first time through the order. He posted an impressive 1.60 ERA with a .231 wOBA and a 2.38 FIP in this scenario. The Astros haven’t been a strong team against lefties this season, so I like Skubal to cruise in the early innings.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
